The forecasts recently issued by the Center for Applied Economics Studies (SEBIA) for the 2025/26 sugarcane crop indicate a lower production than the 2024 crop, also due to the effects of bad weather and fires that occurred in 2024 and are expected to be in the central and southern region in the range of 581 million. And 620 million tons.
Current scenario
A survey conducted by the National Supply Company (CONAP) regarding the 2024 crop showed that production is estimated at 678.67 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous crop. Sugarcane area grew by 4.3%, but average productivity declined due to adverse weather conditions. Even with this scenario, Brazil remains one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of sugar and ethanol in the market.
Sugar and ethanol
Conab figures also show that sugar production, estimated at 44 million tonnes, is 3.7% lower than the 2023/24 crop (45.68 million tonnes), due to lower availability of sugarcane. In the central, southern and northern regions, total ethanol production, which includes both sugarcane and corn derivatives, is expected to reach 36.08 billion litres, representing a growth of 1.3% compared to the previous crop (35.61 billion litres). Of this total, 28.86 billion liters of ethanol will be from sugarcane, a decrease of 2.8%. Ethanol produced from corn will rise significantly by 22.1%, with a forecast of 7.23 billion liters compared to 5.92 billion liters in 2023/24. Of this total, anhydrous ethanol will account for 2.87 billion liters (+28.2% compared to 2.24 billion liters in 2023/24), while hydrous ethanol is expected to total 4.35 billion liters (+18.4% compared to 3.68 billion litres).
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