Uncover The —Leitmotiv— of the Tragedy of the Trojan Horse on October 7, 2023.

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^{Who is ultimately responsible?}

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Are we really looking at a price tag of $100 for each barrel of oil?

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Credential in Food and Beverage Tasting…

Historically, the role of the food taster was predominantly assigned to the elite, including kings and rulers, who lived in perpetual apprehension of being poisoned. Although this position may still exist in some contexts, it prompts an inquiry into who will assume the responsibilities of the contemporary equivalent of the food taster, particularly in relation to mobile technology such as pagers and mobile phones.

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In a recent interview with the Spanish newspapper “EL PAÍS,” Mr. Fatih Birol, the Director General of the International Energy Agency (IEA), expressed concerns regarding the current state of the oil market, highlighting its considerable instability and the possibility of further deterioration in the near future.

This edition includes the article “The Head of the International Energy Agency: ‘The Oil Market is at Risk, and It May Deteriorate Further'” by Ignacio Fariza.

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Foreword:

The blog provided a series of insightful observations and key takeaways, elaborated upon throughout the article.: “The intention to provoke a global conflict should be distinctly apparent… on January 28, 2024, after an extensive long investigation into this anthropological case, which carries considerable economic implications.”

  (1) https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/2tdyhe2ydwc5a9w-gwjg6-tgcw3-ceyxz-stany-sgyh7-nr9ny

‘No man’s land’ is a disputed region crucial for international trade…

The introductory section addressing the conflict between Israel and Palestine examines a multifaceted and persistent issue that can be traced back to the signing of the Sykes-Picot Agreement in 1916, as suggested by this blog. marking the start of an ancestral conflict. The historical roots of this deeply ingrained dispute have persisted over generations, shaping the dynamics of society and infusing the present with the weight of the past. It is essential to genuinely acknowledge the objectivity surrounding this complex historical case.  Some historians assert that the conflict commenced on 14 May 1948, a date that coincides with the departure of the last British soldiers from Palestine and the subsequent declaration of the State of Israel in Tel Aviv by Jewish leaders, most notably David Ben-Gurion.  Conversely, other historians propose alternative starting points for the conflict, emphasizing different events that may hold significance in framing the continuation of hostilities and tensions in the region.  The Six-Day War constituted a military engagement between Israel and Egypt, situated within the broader context of the Arab-Israeli conflict. On 5 June 1967, the Israeli military executed a surprise aerial assault on Egypt, culminating in a decisive victory six days later. Consequently, Israel acquired control over the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights.

It is imperative to understand the fundamental causes of the inhumane actions that occurred during an electronic music concert in southern Israel on October 7, 2022, resulting in harm to innocent young individuals. It is crucial to distinguish between the historical events of the nations involved and the broader narrative that has fostered a profound sense of betrayal among both populations. This sentiment can be traced back to the Sykes-Picot Agreement, a controversial historical treaty negotiated without the consent of the nations inhabiting the disputed territory, often referred to as no man’s land.

The fact remains that we need to confront the violent actions of Hamas.  At the same time, we must carefully consider the impact of Benjamin Netanyahu’s extremely conservative government’s harsh and retaliatory tactics, to which Hamas was already profoundly accustomed.

The Israeli Prime Minister was visibly enraged and stunned by the treacherous and carefully planned poison attack orchestrated by Hamas.  The attack, designed to create chaos reminiscent of a Trojan horse, was deemed a significant failure by the Israeli intelligence establishment.  As the leader addressed the nation, his voice reflected a mix of anger and determination to bring those responsible to justice.  He vowed to pursue “an eye for an eye” and “a tooth for a tooth”” showing an unwavering commitment to holding the perpetrators accountable for their actions.  Amidst the solemn atmosphere, the prime minister also emphasized the need for unity and resilience among the citizens, calling for solidarity in the face of such cowardly acts of violence.

Netanyahu meticulously, ruthlessly, and controversially executed a strategic and calculated scheme against Hamas’ secret resources, perhaps for valid and pressing reasons stemming from the threat to Israeli security. The efficacy and justification of Benjamin Netanyahu’s decisions in addressing the ongoing threats posed by Hamas will only become apparent over time. However, this escalation has resulted in significant civilian casualties, particularly among innocent children, who have disproportionately endured the consequences of this unrelenting conflict and have suffered immensely as a result. However, this provocation has resulted in enormous casualties in the civilian population, particularly innocent children, who have endured immense suffering as a result of these ongoing conflicts.  The military actions by the Israeli army have been labelled as atrocities by many countries, including some influential Middle Eastern allies to the sovereignty of the state of Israel. This has led to widespread condemnation and calls for immediate intervention from the international community to address the escalating humanitarian crisis in the region.

It is imperative to recognize that Hamas possesses a thorough understanding of Israel’s likely responses to any offensive actions, highlighting the importance of their awareness of the potential consequences of their decisions within the complex political dynamics of the region. Additionally, Hamas and its affiliates are cognizant of the prevailing global conditions, which have been influenced by the ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar global order. These factors pose significant risks to public health and safety, with the potential to incite discord, famine, and devastation, and may lead to conflicts reminiscent of those experienced during the interwar period. Historical evidence indicates that substantial economic distress frequently intensifies interpersonal conflicts among individuals.

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The Lord of…

In the initial exploration of the dramatic events that unfolded on October 7, 2023, the focus was on whether Israeli intelligence had dropped the ball or if Hamas had orchestrated a daring and calculated move, fully aware of the potential for a fierce Israeli backlash.  Yet, the intricacies of this scenario weave a tale far more complex than a simple yes or no.  Hamas understands all too well that the Palestinian people, who have faced relentless hardships and often find themselves forgotten by global politics, are eager to reclaim their voice in this ongoing battle.  Some experts suggest that, with their options for influence severely limited, Hamas opted for a bold and risky approach, aiming to capture attention and rally support for the Palestinian cause across the Arab world.

 

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A Trap on Tehran…

On July 31, 2024, Tehran, the political centre of Iran, witnessed a notable and dramatic sequence of events characterized by the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas. (This incident occurred approximately two and a half months after the fatal helicopter crash that resulted in the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.)  This high-stakes operation is widely believed to be the strategic execution of Israeli intelligence and took place in a military-operated guesthouse where Haniyeh was residing following the grand inauguration celebration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The city was engulfed in the shocking news of this unexpected assassination, which cast a significant and ominous shadow of conspiracy over the political landscape. This incident has raised critical inquiries regarding the extensive infiltration of Israeli intelligence within the Arab world, particularly in relation to influential organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran itself.

The recent targeted killing of Haniyeh has sparked widespread unease, particularly within the Iranian intelligence community.  The Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, has been likened to an undercover operation straight out of a James Bond movie, and its actions have dealt a severe setback to the Iranian military establishment.

However, considering the historical context of the Jewish presence in Persia, such dramatic events are only partially unexpected. Judaism boasts a remarkably rich and multifaceted history in Iran, tracing back to biblical times, with pertinent references found in the ancient texts of Isaiah, Daniel, Ezra, Nehemiah, Esther, and Chronicles that highlight the Jewish experience and contributions in Persia.  Today, the largest population of Persian Jews, many of whom emigrated from Iran over the years, resides in Israel, with approximately 75,000 individuals recorded in 1993, which includes those from subsequent generations that followed. Due to various factors such as assimilation, obtaining an accurate current figure for this population is complex.

The integration of Persian Jews into Israel and the enduring presence of thousands in Iran gives Mossad a significant advantage.  It’s widely recognized that the Israeli Intelligence Agency has effectively embedded operatives within Iran, even reaching into the military echelons.  Without such strong and deeply intertwined ties, the recent elimination of the Hamas leader at the end of July last year would have been nearly impossible to achieve, highlighting the complexities involved in such significant military actions.

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Mossad’s pager operation: Inside Israel’s penetration of Hezbollah…

In the most recent edition of The Washington Post, delve into the intricate complexities surrounding Israel’s strategic operations aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s communication networks is presented.  Such actions may jeopardize numerous operatives, rendering them susceptible to potential harm or worse outcomes.

The evolution of communication technology is exemplified by the transition from traditional pagers, which once prompted urgent responses to perceived calls, to their current manifestation as lethal explosive devices—a transformation that evokes a sense of unease. Furthermore, the latent threats associated with contemporary mobile phones cannot be overlooked. This scenario illustrates the precarious condition of our global landscape and the disconcerting transformations it has experienced in recent years.

  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/05/israel-mossad-hezbollah-pagers-nasrallah/?nid=top_pb_signin&arcId=3PJTJ3E5UZEIXLNZB647BF5IV4&account_location=ONSITE_HEADER_ARTICLE

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Finally…

The question raised by the title of this post may elicit a seemingly straightforward answer: the attack that occurred on October 7, 2023, is widely acknowledged. However, the ramifications of this event are complex and reveal the varied perspectives emerging from different regions of Europe. Contemporary discussions suggest that certain individuals or entities may derive substantial benefits from the chaos of war. Unfortunately, this troubling notion may represent a harsh reality that many are reluctant to confront.

  https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/global-affairs/emmanuel-macrons-call-to-halt-arms-supply-to-israel-for-use-in-gaza-triggers-fiery-response-from-benjamin-netanyahu/news-story/92af6b5172deb354ae18f4a715e3dba0

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Gratitude is a vital aspect of our existence…

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The head of the International Energy Agency: “The oil market is at risk, and it can get worse.”

Fatih Birol warns of the “serious bottleneck” that would imply the closure of the Strait of Ormuz, but it removes the ghost of the 100 dollars per barrel

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The oil market had been in a strange state for weeks. After the brutal blow of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all eyes were on a demand that was – and still is – showing clear signs of weakness.  To everyone’s surprise, not even the powder keg in the Middle East was putting a dent in prices.  That all changed on Tuesday, with the attack on Israel by Iran, the seventh-largest producer and holder of the world’s third-largest reserves, which has sent prices soaring and sowed an uneasy sense of unease. ‘The situation of the oil market is risky, and could become even riskier,’ warns the director general of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, in conversation with EL PAÍS.

The head of the energy arm of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, the rich countries’ think tank) sees two dangers on the immediate horizon. The first is that the war could escalate and involve other major producers in a vital energy region.  ‘That’s the big unknown, what I don’t know and I don’t think anyone knows: whether, in the coming days or weeks, other countries will be directly affected…’, he says over the phone.  Five of the world’s ten largest oil producers (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait) are in the Middle East. And three (Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia) are major gas powers.

The second risk is that the conflict will ‘end up affecting a strait through which a significant amount of oil flows’. A clear (albeit indirect) reference to Hormuz is the only possible link between the Persian and Oman Gulfs, controlled by Tehran and through whose waters one out of every five barrels of crude oil that move through every day in the world flows.  With a daily flow of a thousand tankers, a potential closure by Iran would be a significant blow to prices.

‘It is difficult to quantify the impact of the closure of Hormuz, but it would create a serious bottleneck. Especially if it is total,’ warns Birol (Ankara, 66). An Israeli airstrike on Iran’s oil infrastructure, a plausible option, seems more likely.  ‘I don’t want to speculate on the implications of an attack that we don’t know if it will happen,’ the head of the Paris-based agency shirks. ‘But if it does happen, we would see a further increase in volatility. In silver, if Hormuz closes, prices will rise vertically. The only question is how far.

 

Mitigating factors:

In less than a week, a barrel of Brent, the European benchmark, has risen from just 70 dollars to nearly 80 dollars.  This is a substantial rise, but also significantly less than that recorded in the spring and summer of 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed the biggest energy crisis in Europe’s history by invading Ukraine.

Then, the gas price quintupled in the blink of an eye, and oil reached almost 130 dollars. Far, far from today’s levels. ‘At the moment, global demand is quite weak and will peak before 2030. Thanks to that, prices are not rising any further,’ Birol explains.

2024, according to his calculations, consumption will grow by just one million barrels per day, pushed down by weak economic growth in Europe and China and by the increasing electrification of transport. The IEA’s forecast increase is significantly lower than most analysts, and the once all-powerful OPEC cartel (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a colossus that has been shrinking over the years. ‘We are in a relatively comfortable market situation, with a lot of supply and less demand,’ argues Birol.

A muted rose:

A radical change in the market structure has also contributed to the recent muted price rise. ‘An increasingly substantial amount of oil is coming from the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana: just what these countries are increasing their production is enough to cover the new demand. His numbers also point to an idle (spare) capacity of around five million barrels per day in several OPEC countries, ‘especially in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—a robust safety cushion to cope with possible disruptions in the future.

Even in the worst-case scenario of the closure of Hormuz – through which the bulk of Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati oil and gas travels to Europe – Birol sees little likelihood of a cataclysm comparable to that caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The Turkish economist, who is about to celebrate a decade at the helm of the IEA, denies the major: ‘I wouldn’t say so much: at that time, Russia was the world’s leading oil exporter…  I wouldn’t put it on the same scale. He also rules out $100 a barrel, at least in the short term: ‘Barring a major incident, I don’t think we will see those figures…  Unlike in the past, this new geopolitical situation comes when the market is far from tense. A slackness that, he says, makes ‘an important difference’ compared to 2022.