Is that a Donald Trump presidential limo blocking traffic up ahead on Electric Avenue?
If not now, it promises to be a major road hazard to progress in North America’s transportation electrification. The comeback president of the century is threatening to turn back the U.S. mobility clock to discourage its transition to EVs (electric vehicles) from ICEs (internal combustion engines).
Trump’s EV opposition rationale ranges far and wide. Some of it is fanciful and misinformed. Some of it is political. Some of it is economic. Some of it plays to the Trump crowd.
Much of that opposition, however, is rooted in the realization that China has leapfrogged the West in EV production, technology, price point and model variety to become the world’s dominant EV manufacturer.
That makes EVs un-American.
Still, Trump’s threats to North American EV adoption could be little more than blowhard bluster to leverage trade negotiations. Besides, any new anti-EV initiatives realistically will be lower on Trump administration priorities and much further down the road during Trump 2.0.
In the meantime, the marketplace in ICE land, where gasoline consumption is considered in many states to be a patriotic duty, EVs, hybrid-electric and alternative powertrain vehicles continue to pick up sales momentum in the consumer marketplace.
According to numbers released in Cox Automotive’s December Industry Insights and Forecast 2025 [https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/cox-automotive-forecast-dec-2024-u-s-auto-sales-forecast/], sales and market share for electric, plug-in electric and hybrid electric vehicles are up across the board.
December’s seasonally adjusted selling rate (SAR) for vehicles in the United States is projected to hit 16.5 million units. Cox senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said that would tie November as 2024’s strongest sales month and far outpace the 15 million total reached in January.
Sales by powertrain this year compared with the same time in 2023 include hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) up 26%, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) up 19% and battery electric vehicles (BEV) up 8%.
ICE sales meanwhile were down 2%.
Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox’s director of industry insights, noted that hybrid electric vehicles are playing a significant role in the auto market’s electrification transition by offering consumers more options and serving “as a crucial gateway to pure electrification.”
Valdez Streaty said alternative powertrain vehicles made up a record 20% of vehicle sales in the U.S. in 2024’s third quarter.
Cox estimates that Q4 2024 EV sales will increase 12% compared with Q4 2023.
On the less sunny side of Electric Avenue are numerous speedbumps and roadside hazards.
Aside from the costs and challenges of expanding EV recharging infrastructure and alleviating range anxiety for drivers new to electric cars, there are the Trump administration’s threats of escalating tariffs on EV imports from China and elsewhere and a blanket 25% tariff on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico.
The latter would be more than a shot across North American free trade bows.
Cox senior economist Jonathan Smoke said it would radically disrupt the vehicle production process that feeds the North American market.
“… because not only is it a factor of where the vehicle is assembled, but there’s content in every single vehicle sold in the U.S. that comes from other countries and North American production.”
Smoke added that vehicles and components routinely move back and forth across North American borders during production.
“So, it literally blows the mind and would completely freeze up the market if indeed tariffs were to be implemented.”
However, Trump is not averse to blowing minds, rocking boats or running with misinformed policy agendas that score political points but result in widespread collateral damage.
The market will decide in the long run whether transportation electrification upsides trump outmoded ICE technology downsides.
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