The World Bank is scheduled to vote on December 17 on financing the huge Rogun dam project in Tajikistan. If the vote takes place, it would fulfill one of the Tajik regime’s wildest dreams.
The $5 billion Rogun project has been in development since the mid-1970s as a solution to the country’s chronic energy shortage. Since 2011, the Bank has been encouraging it through studies and evaluations.
Tajik President Emomali Rahmon said the project was a matter of “life or death.” This project could indeed have serious consequences, but perhaps not the ones the president has in mind. Construction of the dam would displace more than 60,000 people and cause irreparable damage to the environment.
Tajikistan is widely known for suppressing dissent, suppressing freedom of expression, and stifling civil society. It is a country where human rights defenders and journalists are routinely imprisoned and attacked, and where torture by police is widespread.
As highlighted in the last report,Funding repression”, co-published by the Alliance for Human Rights in Development, Early Warning System and the International Accountability Project, and in the context of Tajikistan, the concerns of affected communities may remain unheard because people are afraid to protest.
The World Bank, which is often under scrutiny for the devastating effects of its projects, has over the years put in place safeguard policies to ensure… Civic engagement And participate in the projects it funds. But how can the right to participate be maintained in a country with such a restrictive civilian space and in a legitimate context where the military would be involved in providing “security”?
Unfortunately, the fact that only international organizations are publicly scrutinizing the project and raising concerns does not mean that local communities are not negatively affected. Although less than 25 percent of construction work has been completed, more than 7,000 people have already been displaced. According to a 2014 Human Rights Watch report, resettled families faced loss of livelihoods, reduced access to food, unreliable and inadequate access to basic services, and lack of adequate compensation.
Furthermore, the Rogun hydropower project will have a devastating impact on downstream communities and ecosystems. It is being built on the Vakhsh River, a major tributary of the Amu Darya River that flows into Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Within Tajikistan, the dam project will impact endangered endemic sturgeon and unique estuary floodplain ecosystems, including the Tugay Forest of Tigrovaya Balka, a World Heritage Site in the Vakhsh River floodplain. It will also affect similar nature reserves downstream, in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Under the current proposal, filling the Rogun reservoir would also severely alter the flow of water into the Aral Sea, an ecosystem that has already suffered one of the largest human-caused environmental disasters.
Once the world’s fourth-largest salt lake, the Aral Sea has now almost dried up as a result of a deeply problematic water and cotton production infrastructure that began in the 1960s in Uzbekistan, then part of the Soviet Union.
The operation of the Rogun Hydropower Dam will further impact the seasonal patterns of water flow and volume that support the relevant ecosystems, their biodiversity, and the livelihoods of the already struggling lower Amu Darya riparian and delta communities. The lack of water redistribution could fuel protests and cross-border tensions in a region already prone to conflict.
Despite the obvious risks posed by operating a new giant reservoir, an initial impact assessment denied significant changes to final flows. Since downstream countries also have very constrained contexts, there are serious doubts that any meaningful stakeholder engagement can take place.
The Tajik regime’s argument that the current situation constitutes “life or death” is baseless. There are alternatives to the current project that can provide the required electricity and will not have the same environmental and human impacts.
Reducing the height of the dam could significantly reduce the number of people at risk of displacement, and the money saved by downsizing the project could be used to build more efficient solar farms, thus diversifying the Tajik energy sector and avoiding over-reliance on hydropower in the region. Vulnerable to droughts exacerbated by climate change. A smaller project can also prevent some of the worst environmental impacts.
In the 1990s, the World Bank itself led the creation of the World Commission on Dams. In 2000, the commission issued a conviction a report It clearly demonstrates how large dams can severely harm people and the environment, and why the alternatives to any proposal to build a large dam must be seriously considered from the beginning.
However, with the recent push to phase out fossil fuels, large dams have been able to get renewed support. Although some emit more greenhouse gases than fossil-fueled power plants, the dams are being promoted as climate-friendly projects, and development banks are once again investing heavily in these dams.
The World Bank still has an opportunity to halt the proposed investments and demand a new impact assessment, including alternative proposals. Now is the time for the Bank to reflect on past mistakes, listen to civil society, and shift investments to smaller projects where potential damage can be sufficiently mitigated. Otherwise, the dream of the largest dam will turn into a nightmare for people and nature in Tajikistan and beyond.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
