A survey conducted by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), Esalq/USP, in partnership with the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove), revealed the scenario of improvement in real income of the soybean and biodiesel chain in the third quarter. quarter of 2024. Despite the estimated 11.48% decline in real income, the decline was mitigated thanks to a recovery in prices throughout the period. As a result, the chain’s GDP could reach R$598.4 billion this year, exceeding the pre-pandemic level and representing 23.2% of agribusiness GDP and 5.1% of national GDP in 2024.
The price recovery was driven by strong demand, both in domestic and foreign markets. Despite this, the decline in GDP in the soybean and biodiesel chain, expected by 6.00% in 2024, remains. This result is a reflection of the failure of the soybean harvest, which led to a 13.53% decline in GDP in the primary sector compared to 2023. On the other hand, the strong performance of the input industry (+3.98%) and the production sector. The post-container sector (+1.07%), with a focus on biodiesel (+23.23%), contributed to mitigating negative impacts. According to researchers from Sepia and APIOV, despite the decline in GDP, the soybean and biodiesel chain will still add the second-highest volume in its history.
Labor market
Estimates for the third quarter indicate a 2.64% decrease in the number of employees in the chain, bringing the total number of employees to 2.23 million people. Despite this, the chain has maintained its importance in the labor market, employing 9.41% of agribusiness workers and 2.17% of the workforce in the Brazilian economy. The agricultural services sector showed a 5.24% decline in occupancy, while the input (+3.48%), basic (+1.67%) and agro-industrial (18.13%) sectors showed growth.
Foreign trade
The export value of soybean and biodiesel series in the third quarter of 2024 was 13.91 billion US dollars, a decrease of 12.57% compared with the same period in 2023. The export volume grew by 1.36%, while average export prices decreased by 13.74%. These products are under pressure due to increased global supply of soybeans and favorable weather conditions in major producers such as the United States and Russia. China remained the main destination, absorbing 75.21% of soybean exports, 22.97% of oil exports, and 46.24% of total biodiesel, glycerin, and soy protein exports. The European Union and Southeast Asia also emerged. Sepia
