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Introduction
Global population currently stands at 8.2 billion, with a collective GDP of US$ 109.5 trillion (IMF 2024 forecast). Supporting and growing that level of economic output requires a tremendous amount of energy consumption – around 14.5 billion tonnes of oil equivalent per annum. In other units, 606 EJ (ExaJoules) per annum, equating to 80 GJ per annum for every person on the planet.
Future numbers will be higher still, with global electricity demand doubling from 2000 to 2023 and new uses (such as EVs, AI, developing nations) demanding yet more growth.
Our contemporary consumption and production patterns are the origin of the current environmental and social emergencies: from climate change, habitat destruction, falling biodiversity, pollution proliferation, unsustainable water use, declining food capacity, sea level rise and ocean acidification.
The world is witnessing an increasing roster of temperature records and disasters- extreme droughts, giant wildfires, deadly heat waves, hurricanes and major floods. And this is only the beginning of what may happen as we cross one or more system tipping points in the years ahead.
Natural Capital
Natural capital is comprised of the natural world – forests; soils; natural resources; plant species; animal species; minerals; water; air, and so on. Ecosystems and ecosystem services also form part of natural capital, the global stock of environmental assets.
Against the above backdrop is the decline in natural capital. Natural capital is declining in 116 out of 140 countries. It would currently take about 1.8 Earths to produce the resources consumed by humans and to absorb their wastes. Half of the world’s habitable land (19.7 million square miles) has been converted to agriculture, with 77% of agricultural land used for grazing. This massive conversion of forests, wetlands, grasslands and other terrestrial ecosystems is leading to widespread loss of ecosystems and ecosystem services, on a scale never seen before. Deforestation and degradation continue universally, while the cryosphere melts at an alarming rate.
Loss of biodiversity has been one inevitable outcome. The number of vertebrates worldwide has fallen by over 60% since 1970, with the greatest losses in freshwater habitats (83%) and in South and Central America (89%). Described as the Sixth Mass Extinction, up to one million plant and animal species are now facing extinction due to human activities.
Another, perhaps less inevitable, outcome is how natural capital and humankind would be affected by the crystallisation of tipping points. This would be an extremely unwelcome development, but the likelihood is still rising with every year.
Drylands are now approaching 45% of all land, with land degradation processes (water and wind erosion, vegetation degradation, salinisation, soil compaction and nutrient loss) the main drivers in almost all dryland systems.
Africa and Asia have the most extensive dryland systems on Earth – each has almost 15% of the global land area. These continents are especially threatened, with desertification, and a range of ecological and climatic drivers such as drought, dust storms, heat waves, water stress, extreme rainfall events, wildfires, dzud, and disease.
Some 126 states are affected by aridity worldwide, including 46 African states and 38 Asian states. Clearly, there are some difficult and immediate remedial actions required.
“The time for seeking global solutions is running out. We can find suitable solutions only if we act together and in agreement.” Pope Francis, 266th Catholic Pope.
The Policy Imperative
“It’s not climate change that needs to be tackled. It is the political power of the fossil fuel industry.”
Richard Denniss, The Australian Institute
Today, the central question is whether our governments can catch up, reform policy and sufficiently deal with the physical realities that threaten everyone on the planet.
Despite a slew of international accords over the past three decades, along with 28 COPs (Conferences of the Parties), the rate of decline continues.
Focus has diverted away from direct physical solutions, towards technological and market solutions supporting short-term decarbonisation.
Yet we have the solutions and available funding.
Reversing the Human Planetary Emergency – Refocus on Physical Solutions
“We must scale-up Nature-Based Solutions, protect & restore nature. Governments shall integrate the value of nature in all their decision-making process”.
Chantal van Ham, EU Programme Manager Nature Based Solutions, IUCN
Ecological restoration on land and water, done at speed and on a massive scale, is our fastest way out of our planetary emergency. We are already on the cusp of several tipping points. There is no realistic alternative.
The restoration of degraded land will improve the flow of many other ecosystems (rivers, wetland, forests etc.) by conserving and improving the condition of natural capital. Ecological restoration should be eminently financeable – with estimates suggesting they provide a cost benefit ratio of 35:1, based on the value of additional ecosystems services provided.
By following proven land restoration practices, it is possible to restore ecosystems, increase crop yields, improve water management, sequester carbon, increase biodiversity, and alleviate some of the effects of flooding, soil erosion, species loss etc.
Financing the Transition
Environmental assets are the most cost-effective assets in the fight against natural capital decline. Yet only 2% of global financing currently goes toward nature’s climate solutions. This despite annual environmental cost estimates from human activity at 11-18% of world GDP.
Protecting and restoring tropical forests, mangroves and degraded lands on a huge scale can provide the mitigation action needed to solve the crisis. Such solutions are massively underfunded and this is where the focus must be going forwards.
We need to empower local / indigenous communities for the transition ahead, as long-term stewards of their lands with indispensable local knowledge. And we need widespread set up of long-term ‘common wealth ownership’ and stewardship entities, unaffected by which short-term government is currently in power. Entities that can protect our natural assets for the long term, for the people and future generations.
To finance this extraordinary transition will require at least 25-30% of available project financing to go to restoration projects. For this to happen, a formal recognition of the value of nature’s ecosystem services is needed and quickly. And recognition of the increasingly negative value of not having them in an optimal state. Some relaxation of formal financial standards (or new forms of structuring) may also be required, in order to adapt financing to the realities of long-term and often multi-decade community-driven restoration projects.
We need a ‘race to the top’ where nations and entities are encouraged and rewarded for good stewardship, not more of the same. Debt-for-nature swaps, green and blue bonds, supranational-backed restoration projects etc. – we need them all and much more. Alongside incentives, carbon and ‘nature-parasitic’ taxes should be mandatory. Carbon and biodiversity pricing should become mainstream, to be set by governments and not only markets.
Appendix – A Compilation of Ecosystem Restoration Projects
This Appendix is a compilation of some of the more instructive videos on ecosystem restoration, agroforestry, permaculture, water capture and harvesting, saline agroecologies and so on.
A walk-through of some truly inspiring projects – old, new and planned – serving as examples of what is eminently achievable in nature restoration and conservation, even in some in the planet’s most challenging environments.
With credit and congratulations to all those involved – NvForest, Planet Wild, Trees for the Future, Leaf of Life, Sebastian Muller, WFP Resilience Team, UN World Food Programme, Tony Rinaldo, Yanik Nyberg, Seawater Solutions, Yin Yushen, Neal Spackman, Andrew Millison, John Liu, Rob de Laet, EcoRestoration Alliance and countless others. And of course, the many tens of thousands of local farmers and workers who have been involved.
- Rob de Laet, EcoRestoration Alliance,
Plan to stabilise the climate and cool the planet within 20 years
And interview
2. Agriforestry in Senegal, The Sahel, Western Africa
Afforestation and the Great Green Wall of Africa.
3. Niger, The Sahel, Western Africa – Reforestation of vast tracts of land through Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR), Contour bunds, Zai technique etc.
4. Danakil Desert Project, Ethiopia – Previously a forested area, but now one of the hottest, driest deserts on the planet. Watershed restoration through water structures (terraces, bunds, trenches, check dams and percolation ponds) and FMNR.
5. Al-Badhya Project (since 2009), Makkah Province, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
6. Saudi Arabia’s new desert and water desalination megaproject – the planned 12,000 km long subterranean water structure (9.4 million m3 planned daily water flow)
7. China – Six Breakthrough Methods to Transform Deserts into Fertile Lands
8. Minquin, Gobi Desert, China (since 2008)
9. Mu Us / Maowusu Desert, China (since 1985)
10. Saltwater Farming – Saline agroecologies. Restoration and transition of degraded saltwater bodies into high yield high efficiency saltwater farms growing perennial halophytes.
11. Laporiyah village, Rajasthan, India (since 1977). Harnessing monsoons and floods through water harvesting structures with integrated local management.
12. Sadhguru / Isha Foundation Project, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, Southern India – Plan to plant 2.42 BILLION trees.
And last but not least, Andrew Millison’s compilation of epic projects:
13. Arvari River Restoration, Rajasthan, Northwest India (since 1986) – Arvari River Restoration Project Construction of 375 water harvesting structures (yojads and bunds) over 500 sqkm and 70 villages, to make the river flow permanent after 60 years of dry beds.
14. Chikukwa, Zimbabwe, Southern Africa (since 1991) – Restoration of hillside forests, water supply and food security, through water harvesting and cascading management structures, over 6 villages.
The Chikukwa Project Trailer
15. Rajasthan, India – GRAVIS Jodhpur Project (since 1983)
16. Northern China – The Loess Plateau
Footage from “Hope in a Changing Climate” by John D. Liu (2009)
http://eempc.org
http://tamera.org
17. Maharastra, Western India – The Paani Foundation Project (since 2019)
India’s Water Revolution #1: Solving the Crisis in 45 days with the Paani Foundation
India’s Water Revolution #2: The Biggest Permaculture Project on Earth! with the Paani Foundation
18. Regenerative Resources Project: Regenerative Seawater Agriculture
https://regenerativeresources.co/
