This report serves as a follow-up to the article “Quo Vadis Wind-Power ?,” written in March, originally published on LinkedIn, and this follow-up was developed with the assistance of ChatGPT, addressing the key developments and challenges of the past nine months.
The wind energy sector has made tremendous progress over the last few decades and is regarded as a cornerstone of the energy transition. However, amidst the excitement surrounding new technologies and innovative projects, critical questions arise: Where is wind energy heading? Are current decisions truly sustainable and effective? The global wind power industry is facing major challenges as numerous offshore projects worldwide have been discontinued due to rising costs and the scarcity of raw materials. Recently in Denmark, there were no bidders for offshore projects, and major players like Shell are retreating from the sector. This raises pressing questions about the future of wind energy.
The Case of Germany
Germany provides a striking example of the growing obstacles in expanding wind energy. With over 30,200 wind turbines on land and sea, the country has reached a point where further expansion no longer yields the expected returns. Project developers have already secured the most favorable locations, leaving less attractive areas for new developments.
Photo: SCHEIDEL, MARCUS / ACTION PRESS
Moreover, the extensive deployment of wind turbines has led to reduced efficiency due to the so-called wind wake effect. Neighboring wind farms are slowing each other down, leading to a loss of energy potential. This phenomenon is observed both onshore and offshore, with offshore wakes extending up to 70 km.
Photo: Christian Steiness via Flickr/Vattenfall
Compounding this issue, about one-third of Germany lacks adequate wind conditions, particularly in the south, where wind speeds are significantly lower. A halving of wind speed results in an eightfold decrease in wind energy density, making investments in these regions uneconomical. The federal government plans to offset the limited productivity of low-wind areas by increasing subsidies to stimulate further investments. To what extent these measures will impact future electricity prices remains to be seen.
Rising Costs and Infrastructure Challenges
Electricity and material costs have risen significantly, while supply chain disruptions have further complicated the situation. Expanding the power grid to accommodate the energy from new and existing wind farms remains a critical bottleneck. Without solving these systemic problems, further expansion could exacerbate existing inefficiencies. As the German government responded to a parliamentary question, more than 24% of offshore electricity was simply shut off (destroyed) in the first quarter of 2023, amounting to a total of 6,804,208 MWh curtailed through grid adjustment management, due to a lack of grid capacity.
Overlooked Potential in Mountainous Areas
Globally, wind energy from mountainous and hilly regions has been largely neglected. Approximately 30% of the earth’s surface consists of mountains and hills, presenting an untapped opportunity for wind power development. These areas offer significantly higher wind energy density than at sea due to natural wind acceleration. For example, the area in Río Chico, Santa Cruz province, Argentina, has a wind energy density of over 118,000 W/m². This is 100 times more energy than at typical offshore locations. This eliminates the need for towering turbines and the associated costs.
Norway’s Fjords: A Promising Case Study
Norway’s fjords exemplify the untapped potential of mountainous wind energy. In the Stryn area, the wind energy density reaches more than 40,000 W/m² at a wind speed of over 20 m/s. The natural rock formations amplify wind density, and the abundance of water offers an ideal setting for producing green hydrogen and ammonia. This approach makes extensive power grids or battery storage redundant, as the energy can be stored immediately in the form of hydrogen or ammonia and transported as green fuel. In addition, Norway has abundant natural gas, which is already an additional energy source and is available as a back-up 24/7.
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Lessons from Denmark
Denmark, a pioneer in renewable energy, has also hit a saturation point. Over the last 30 years, the country has densely populated its land and sea with wind turbines. In 2023, while other European nations expanded their wind capacity, Denmark saw minimal growth due to a lack of viable locations.
Three years ago, Denmark launched an ambitious plan to create energy islands in the North Sea. For an island with an area of approximately 120,000 m², the material requirements could include:
- 20 million tons of stones and gravel.
- 60,000 to 100,000 tons of concrete.
- 100,000 to 500,000 tons of additional materials (steel, technology, foundation structures).
When compared to Denmark’s larger plans of building multiple such islands, the total material demands for the entire project could reach 50 to 100 million tons. These figures highlight the staggering scale and potential infeasibility of such projects. These islands were envisioned as hubs for hydrogen production powered primarily by offshore wind farms. However, this initiative failed due to prohibitive costs, and it has raised critical questions about whether such artificial solutions are realistic when existing islands or natural resources remain underutilized. Now, Danish developer Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) is exploring new projects, such as building wind farms off the Åland Islands to produce green hydrogen. Yet, the wind conditions in this region are less favorable than those off Denmark’s coast, casting doubt on the project’s feasibility.
Rethinking Wind Energy
The challenges faced by Germany, Denmark, the UK, the US and now much of the world illustrate the need to critically evaluate whether existing plans truly harness the best wind resources and technologies. Offshore wind farms rely on exploiting high wind speeds at great heights, necessitating massive towers and complex infrastructure. Moreover, the high costs associated with artificial islands often yield marginal benefits compared to floating or seabed-based offshore installations. These challenges underscore the urgent need to rethink and redefine wind energy generation. A sustainable way forward could be to focus on mountainous and hilly regions, utilize natural wind accelerators, and integrate hybrid solutions such as QuadCore Energy, which combine multiple energy sources to provide constant power generation. If these innovative approaches are not adopted, the stagnation observed worldwide could become a trend and jeopardize the future of wind energy.
The coming years will show whether these insights will lead to a newly conceived and revitalized wind power industry.
