Man-Earth System problems and solutions – Part 2 Nature and Water

 

November 17, 2024

Nature and Water

Nature is still the best heat, carbon and climate solution we have. And water is the best protector and enabler of Nature. As the COP process meets new hurdles, how can we bypass this, and how will Nature and Water solutions actually work?

#COP29 #COP30 #G20 #Water #Desalination #WaterInfrastructure #Reforestation #Regeneration #NatureProtection #Restoration #naturalcapital #greenfinance #greenbonds #bluebonds #movethemoney #CarbonDebtSwaps #DebtforNature #ClimateAction #Nature #Kazan #RightsofNature #IndigenousRights #EnviromentalGovernance #Ecology #NaturebasedSolutions #CarbonRemoval #EcosystemRestoration #GlobalRestoration #ClimateChange #Biodiversity #GlobalBiodiversityFramework #GenerationRestoration #LandDegradation #Conservation #Ecocide #InnovationFinance #SustainableLand #SDGs #Precipitation #Evapotranspiration

Link to Part 1 of this post

 

This post is again slightly longer than usual!, so I shall begin with a list of contents. I hope readers find it stimulating and find some inspiration for future action.

Introduction

The Restoration of Nature is the best (only) chance we have to rebalance the Earth’s carbon and energy budgets. It is paramount that we maintain Nature’s ability to cool the environment, and to avoid the serious effects arising from deforestation, devegetation and desertification. Human development actions to date have typically worked against these dynamics of replenishment.

Water, soils and plants (and human helpers) are the key ingredients for this, and our climate recovery through the restoration of Nature. All are supremely important to humanity, and to the biosphere, for

 

• greening of the planet
• protection and restoration of ecosystem services globally
• climate stabilisation and risk management
• increasing cloud cover and albedo, and
• carbon drawdown

They can accomplish this very quickly, with sufficient support.

 

Nature Protection and Restoration are therefore the core activities we should be spending time and money on for the next decade, alongside other commitments. To be duly prioritised and valued above all else.

 

Section 1 – Directions in Science and Climate Change

In recent years we have experienced an acceleration of scholarly work addressing climate change, with thousands of papers published each year. A steady flow of new advances in modelling and analysis are coming through, incorporating many interdisciplinary fields of study. The Planetary Boundaries Framework, the IPCC Assessment Reports, many excellent papers and reports, all products of interdisciplinary research and collaboration.

It is important to have practical 2030, 2050 and other emissions targets tied in with Paris goals. But whether we hit 1.5 C above pre-industrial seems rather academic, in the face of (i) the current lack of progress on emissions reductions; and (ii) the unrealistic precision of any short-term temperature target.

The crux is that greater warming is already ‘in the pipeline’ (per Prof. Hansen) from existing and future GHGs. The Earth system response to the presence of GHGs consists of a range of feedback processes. Some feedbacks are fast (up to 10 years), some slow (up to 100 years) and some very slow.  We have future warming coming from these feedbacks – the recent Emissions Gap Report 2024 has 2.6-3.1 C by 2100. And we technically breached 1.5 C this year.

 

The CO2 Fork in the Road

Somewhere along the way, CO2 /carbon removal and low carbon technologies became the main action items. Action on carbon is of course very important, but it was never supposed to be the exclusive direction of travel. Nature Restoration, and the infrastructure to support it, need to be our prime focus.

With clean energy investment reaching new heights, and solar energy destined to become the #1 energy supply by 2033 (IEA Global Energy Outlook, 2024), followed by wind, the prospect of Peak Emissions is again in the air. Not through the wilful production cuts of Carbon Contributing Nations (CN), but through market pricing forces.

Either way, ‘overshoot’ of CO2 emissions is now guaranteed, but CO2 /carbon removal has never been the whole story.

 

Some Future Research Directions

As Prof. Hansen notes in his 2023 paper, cloud feedbacks are only just beginning to be simulated well. There is plenty of work to do.

Given that we are running out of time on the current emissions reduction path, some of the areas that merit further scientific and engineering focus include:

 

• Changes in the water cycle and Earth’s cooling mechanisms
• The ‘warming in the pipeline’ – Long term climate sensitivity and Earth system feedbacks
• Climate intervention and CDR (carbon dioxide removal) technologies
• Climate system dynamics as we re-green the planet
• Climate system dynamics with higher sea levels and global desalination
• Climate system dynamics as we reach tipping points e.g. the progressive collapse of the AMOC

 

Selection of Landmark Climate Science

Arrhenius (1896) “On The Influence of Carbonic Acid In the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground” – the first paper on the Greenhouse Effect, and the first to quantify the contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect and rising surface temperatures. “Carbonic acid” is used to describe CO2, in accordance with the convention at the time.

An interesting visualisation from 130 years ago – Arrhenius quotes Hogbom (1894 lecture) as equating the quantity of carbon in the atmosphere to “a layer of about 1mm thickness over the Earth’s surface”. In fact in 1894 this carbon layer (the ‘Carbon Quilt’) would have been around 0.68 m thick over the Earth’s surface. And in 2024 this layer would be c. 0.98 m thick.

Callendar (1938) “The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature” – the first to quantify the connection between increasing CO2, fuel combustion and temperature. Callendar estimates the 50-year anthropogenic CO2 addition at 150 billion tons. He highlights as important factors “the temperature-pressure-alkalinity-CO2 relation for sea water … the vapour pressure atmospheric radiation relation … the absorption spectrum of atmospheric water vapour … and a full knowledge of the thermal structure of the atmosphere.”

Manabe & Wetherald (1967) “Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity” – the first Earth system climate model enabling accurate predictions of global warming. A pioneering effort that introduced equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), CO2 and water-vapour feedback. As with all good science, the findings have stood the test of time.

Keeling, C.D et al. (1976) “Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa observatory” – the first paper to document the dramatic increases in CO2 in the atmosphere, in the form of the “Keeling Curve”. Linking CO2 increases to the combustion of carbon, petroleum and natural gas.

Schellnhuber (1997) and Lüdeke, Petschel-Held and Schellnhuber (2004) “Syndromes of Global Change: The First Panoramic View” – The first papers to provide a framework linking impacts on Nature with socioeconomic development patterns (syndromes).

Held, I.M. & Soden, B.J. (2006) “Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming” – The first systematic conclusion about regional precipitation and global warming, based on robust physical understanding of the atmosphere. Introduced the “wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier” paradigm for precipitation under global warming.

Rockstrom et al. (2009) – “A safe operating space for humanity” – Introducing a planetary boundaries framework, to specify a safe operating space boundary for human activity.

IPCC AR5 (2014) – A ‘tour de force’ series of comprehensive reports on the state of knowledge of climate change, including the AR5 Synthesis Report and 3 Working Group reports on Adaptation, Mitigation and a 1552 page report on The Physical Science.

 

Final Warnings

Alongside numerous landmark papers, the work of the former Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, deserves special mention. Some of the most consistently bold predictions and insightful commentary have come from Prof. James Hansen. Challenging the conservatism of peers, he has been accurate in early forecasts across several decades. His contributions have brought welcome clarity and less hedging – some examples follow.

“The penalty for ‘crying wolf’ is immediate, while the danger of being blamed for having ‘fiddled while Rome was burning’ is distant… ‘Gradualism’ that results from reticence seems to be comfortable and well-suited for maintaining long-term support” Hansen et al. (2023) – Certain scenarios are seen as too scary and in need of greater evidence. Scientists making bold unprecedented forecasts may have career risk, but boldness is needed.

2006 – Only a decade left to act in time – The world has a 10-year window to take decisive action on global warming and avert catastrophe. ‘Business as usual’ will see temperatures rise 2-3 C; ice sheets will melt quickly, causing SLR to put most of Manhattan under water; prolonged droughts and heat waves; powerful hurricanes; likely extinction of 50% of species. The Bush administration tried to silence him and heavily edited his and others’ findings.

“We cannot burn off all the fossil fuels … without causing dramatic climate change …. This is not something that is a theory. We understand the carbon cycle well enough to say that.” …. “[the US] has passed up the opportunity” to influence the world on global warming.

2008 – Target atmospheric CO2 – Where should humanity aim? – Paleoclimate data climate sensitivity is ∼3°C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. ECS including slower surface albedo feedbacks is∼6°C for doubled CO2 … CO2 needs to be reduced … 350 ppm may be achievable … If the present overshoot is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.

2011 – Earth’s energy imbalance and implications – Green’s Function approximation for climate response. Earth Energy Imbalance driven by anthropogenic GHGs. Most climate models underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Knowledge of changing aerosol effects needed to understand future climate change. Ice melt to accelerate the rate of SLR.

2012 – Public perception of climate change and the new climate dice – A short message in the public interest, attributing extreme weather to climate change, not natural variability.

2016 – Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous – Paleoclimate data forecasts that fundamentally differ from existing assessments – “high impact, high probability” for “shutdown of the overturning ocean circulations and large sea level rise”. Ice melt increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, driving more powerful storms. 2 C warming above pre-industrial level could be dangerous. Non-linear sea level rise – several meters over 50–150 years.

2023 – Global warming in the pipeline – Fresh evaluation of Charney’s Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) based on improved paleoclimate data. EES as a generalised form of ECS – including amplifying feedbacks of GHGs and ice sheets. The decline in air pollution (global aerosol emissions) will accelerate global warming, with 1.5 C breached before the end of the 2020s and 2 C before 2050. Sea level rise will be greater than IPCC estimates and the AMOC could collapse before the end of the century.

“Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today’s human-made GHG climate forcing (4.1 W/m2) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today’s aerosols”

“Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming pumps up hydrologic extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature.”

“in the absence of human activity, Earth may have been headed for snowball Earth conditions within the next 10 or 20 million years… chance of future snowball Earth is now academic. Human-made GHG emissions remove that possibility on any time scale of practical interest”

“The reduction of climate forcing required to reduce EEI to zero is greater than EEI. The added burden is a result of ultrafast cloud feedback… Cloud feedbacks are only beginning to be simulated well, but climate sensitivity near 1.2°C per W/m2 implies that the net cloud feedback is large, with clouds accounting for as much as half of equilibrium climate sensitivity”

“Required actions… 1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions, 2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and 3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate… These changes will not happen with the current geopolitical approach, but current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.”

 

The 2023 paper again raised the bar on future forecasts and gives the unadulterated facts. Whereas most still hold the 1.5 C target as possible, humanity is already in ‘overshoot’ phase.

Others have now also taken up the mantle, with the latest slew of reports and papers, just in time for COP 29. Amongst the new messaging is the 2024 State of the Climate Report (Ripple et al.):

“We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis . . . “

“For half a century, global warming has been correctly predicted even before it was observed—and not only by independent academic scientists but also by fossil fuel companies… Despite these warnings, we are still moving in the wrong direction”

“Tragically, we are failing to avoid serious impacts, and we can now only hope to limit the extent of the damage. We are witnessing the grim reality of the forecasts as climate impacts escalate, bringing forth scenes of unprecedented disasters around the world …”

“Fossil fuel consumption rose by 1.5% in 2023 relative to 2022 … Global tree cover loss rose from 22.8 Mha/year in 2022 to 28.3 Mha/year in 2023,  …. partly because of wildfires … Annual energy-related emissions increased 2.1% in 2023, and are now above 40 GtCO2e for the first time… the growth rate of methane emissions has been accelerating  … Each 0.1°C of global warming places an extra 100 million people (or more) into unprecedented…”

 

Overshoot

“[Ecological] Overshoot is an inherently unstable state that cannot persist indefinitely. As pressures increase and the risk of Earth’s climate system switching to a catastrophic state rises, more and more scientists have begun to research the possibility of societal collapse.”

And with ‘overshoot’ comes the next set of possible future outcomes – catastrophe, resources cliffs, population collapse and societal collapse.

“In a world with finite resources, unlimited growth is a perilous illusion. We need bold, transformative change: drastically reducing overconsumption and waste…. stabilizing and gradually reducing the human population… reforming food production systems to support more plant-based eating… adopting an ecological and post-growth economics framework …”

 

The new UN Synthesis Report assessing the latest climate plans (NDCs) of the world’s nations is equally forboding:

”current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country.” Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary

Notwithstanding bolder commitments at COP29, or G20 and COP30 (both in Brazil), the current path for 2030 is that the NDC-implied emission cuts will merely get us back to 2018/2019 levels. Way short of what is needed to “hold global heating below 1.5°C”.

 

“… the American public is a weak political counterweight to these dynamics. Global warming is a complex phenomenon and not readily understood by the average citizen. Attempts by the fossil fuel industries to obfuscate the threat, combined with outright suppression of scientific conclusions by the Bush II administration, has engendered climate confusion among citizens … humans are hard-wired by evolution to ignore long-term threats like global warming. Until Americans actually feel the consequences of global heating on a daily basis, the issue may not become salient enough to create the political pressure for a national carbon reduction effort – and by then it may be too late … Citizens are accustomed to addressing social problems through progressive, incremental policy … Few citizens understand the concept of ‘carbon math’ or deadlines imposed by Nature.”

Mary C. Wood, Atmospheric Trust Litigation – Adjudicating Climate Change (2009). Professor of Law and Founder, Environmental & Natural Resources Law Program, University of Oregon

 

This is unfortunately how systems work in times of ‘status quo’. Radical steps typically belong to periods of uncertainty and strife, where revolutions occur and leaders stand up to change the status quo. Gradual changes mirror the status quo – they are stepping stones to greater action. The ongoing development of renewable energies and the low carbon transition are inspiring yet insufficient on their own. Reliant on the current non-ecological governing framework, we are literally the frog stuck in the pot of water that begins to boil.

 

“Climate change is not about politics, it’s about survival.”

James Hansen

 

So how do we get to a position where we can make the required changes?

 

Section 2 – Working Backwards from the Answer

Working back from ‘the Answer’ sounds like something most of us did at school. Looking up the answers in the back of the book, in order to gain insight as to how to solve a question.

A recent post ‘Nature Protection in 2045’ did precisely that. Envisioning the world in 2045, in order to gain insight on today’s solution paths. The solution path is not about CO2 emissions per se, it is the precursor to meaningful carbon drawdown and planetary cooling – the Great Restoration of Nature. And while the vision below is the preferred solution because it is structural, the Restoration of Nature can still happen on smaller budgets.

 

The Answer – A Vision from 2045

 

• In 2045, designated NPAs (Nature Protection Areas) are recorded and accounted for in national natural capital databases. They include the majority of the world’s forests, wetlands, grasslands, marine and coastal areas, as well as green zones within and around cities and towns.
• The world’s NPAs are a major priority, sustainably managed for long-term conservation and sustainable production. Protected areas have grown to cover 30% of habitable land and 50% of oceans, including all key biodiversity areas. Environmental governance is globally integrated.
• Temperature projections are higher but better understood in 2045, and humanity has accepted the new reality. We must live in harmony with Nature and use Nature to cool the planet as much as possible. But there is still much to be done.
• Funding is through Centralised Taxes – Environmental Taxes on Assets, Corporate Revenues, Financial Transactions, Barrels of Oil, Carbon, Waste, Pollution and the “Linear Economy”.
• New value ecosystems use cascades and multipliers – recycling wastes, water, carbon, energy, emissions etc to improve land, ecosystems/natural cycles in a positive feedback loop.
• Water infrastructure and desalination emerged as a necessary global climate back-up solution. Pipelines supply water to drought-affected areas, drylands and desertified areas.
• The Launch of an Environmental Funds sector with a long-term and annual cash surplus, which enables them to fund ongoing activities while bringing further assets under restoration.
• New laws and regulations for a huge scale-up in Environmental restoration and governance, including Nature Assets of Global Importance.
• Mutualisation of Climate Risks through centralised funding and investment systems. All Nations will have problems in the future, orders of magnitude higher than current – hence the need to work together and mutualise the risks involved.

 

The Answer in 2024 – Restore Nature and Water

The Answer is based on common sense and what we know about the Earth system and Nature’s ability to restore and regenerate. And as part of restoring Nature, we must also restore the water cycle.

As set out in the Earths Energy Imbalance, the Earth’s water systems (oceans, cryosphere, water, atmospheric water vapour) account for c. 95% of Earth’s heat dynamics. In physics terms, the specific heat capacity of water is high compared to the land and air – so much more heat is required for water phase changes than other substances. Incoming solar radiation /radiant energy gets converted into four states:  sensible heat (related to temperatures); latent energy (related to changes in phase of water, the hydrological cycle); potential energy and kinetic energy. This leads to system dynamics of temperature gradients, winds, mass flows, phase changes etc. – driving the physical and biological processes of the planet. In its ice, water and vapour forms, water is at the centre of many of these processes.

Earth Net Radiation – Seasonal Phases

The planet is host to a thermodynamic system whereby the overall energy flows are roughly balanced. We have a large Earth energy imbalance (484 TW) but this is still less than 1% of the total Earth energy budget.

 

In other words, we are being slowly cooked by an energy budget imbalance of just 1%.

It should not be beyond the wit of Man to reverse this situation. Again, not through CO2 removal per se but through restoration of Nature and the water cycle. By restoring the water cycle and Nature we will cool the planet and offset the GHG effect on the Earth’s energy balance. In the process we may increase cloud cover, another factor in planetary cooling.

Section 3 will explore the Restoration of Nature and Water in greater detail.

 

Changing the Status Quo

“…the traditionally valid distinction between profit-based companies and non-profit organizations can no longer do full justice to reality, or offer practical direction for the future. In recent decades a broad intermediate area has emerged between the two types of enterprise… It is to be hoped that these new kinds of enterprise will succeed in finding a suitable juridical and fiscal structure in every country.”

Pope Benedict XVI, Encyclical Letter, Caritas In Veritate (2009)

 

Nations need to create a ‘race to the top’ in terms of climate action. Per recent COP reform letters to the UN in 2023 and 2024, we are still chained to a global system that works by incremental economic and policy movements. Much bolder action seems to elude us.

“All the essential legally binding documents and guiding declarations … are in place. It has taken 7 years since the 2015 signing of the Paris Agreement to finalise all components … The consensus-based COP structure is predisposed to incremental progress – it took 6 years from Copenhagen/COP15 to Paris/COP21, and then another 6 years to Glasgow/COP26 for progress on Article 6, and 7 years … for progress on loss and damage … This lethargic progress is at odds with climate science and real-world climate damage and risks”

 

While the centralised “Plan A” continues with the COPs and potential COP Reforms, “Plan B” (in both structural and decentralised format) continues.

Plan B

Structural Plan B – A new Environmental Funds branch of the global system, with new sources of financing. Funding based on existing commitment structures and new environmental taxes. An environmental overlay to the current system – without great upfront cost to the current economic order.

 

• Environmental taxes are non-pernicious and necessary – they will literally ‘save the world’
• Environmental taxes do not hurt as much – they can be applied to assets and cash flows – with reinvestment into Nature and its Restoration.
• Environmental Funds can be funded from Environmental Taxes, reallocation of subsidies, carbon debt for Nature asset swaps, as well as greater ambition on conventional funding.
• Environmental Funds are asset owning entities with strict long-term stewardship structures.
• Environmental Funds represent a win win for recipient nations and contributing nations. Contributing nations co-invest to buy Nature asset stakes with stewardship, rather than investing into perceived ‘black hole budgets’ with less accountability.
• Developing nations obtain valuable climate financing, under combined national and international stewardship. Importantly, they obtain co-investment funding not more unsustainable debt.
• Both recipient nations and contributing nations get the opportunity to reset finance and relations – through long-term future cooperation.

Climate change is already underway, so we must hedge against the risks of more wildfires, more droughts, less rainfall, less soil moisture.

Therefore investing in Nature Restoration requires investing in Water Infrastructure alongside. To deliver water to where it is needed, in order to better protect Nature while we embark on the Great Restoration of Nature.

 

 

Decentralised Plan B – The decentralised version of Structural Plan B is already underway, through the myriad projects and initiatives of tree planting, ecosystems restoration and regeneration around the world.

These will continue and will attract greater funding from all sources possible – until a structural solution is implemented by the world’s Nations, whether through the COP process or a new initiative.

 

As we shall see in Section 3 below, Nature Protection and Restoration is way cheaper than creating man-made solutions that aim to provide the same services or goals as Nature.

 

 

Section 3 – Nature Restoration – Water, Soils and Plants

 

“The right to a balanced and healthful ecology… belongs to a different category of rights altogether, for it concerns nothing less than self-preservation and self-perpetuation… the advancement of which may even be said to predate all governments and constitutions… these basic rights need not even be written in the Constitution for they are assumed to exist from the inception of humankind. If they are now explicitly mentioned… it is because of the well-founded fear of its framers that unless the right to a balanced and healthful ecology and to health are mandated as state policies by the Constitution itself… the day would not be too far when all else would be lost not only for the present generation, but also for those to come – generations which stand to inherit nothing but parched earth incapable of sustaining life.”

Republic of the Philippines, Supreme Court Ruling (1993) in Class action (101083) vs. Dept of Environment & Natural Resources, and Regional Trial Court Branch 66 (Makati, Metro Manila)

 

A. Thermodynamic Regulation in Nature

“Land is not merely soil, it is a fountain of energy flowing through a circuit of soils, plants and animals.” – Aldo Leopold

 

In physics /thermodynamic terms, we can think of the Earth as a heat engine. Nature harnesses the planet’s water to cycle, transfer and convert heat from the biosphere. Earth’s ecosystems are frameworks to moderate energy from the Sun, and maintain cooling.

The various life forms may be exothermic or endothermic in how they metabolise / regulate body temperature – plants, fungi, bacteria, animals, insects, microorganisms etc. Those that produce energy internally are known as endotherms (or homeotherms), and those taking in energy from the external environment are ectotherms (or poikilotherms). Others may display elements of both (mesotherms and heterotherms). Human beings, mammals and birds are homoeotherms (endotherms). Most other animals, plants and fungi are usually considered poikilotherms (ectotherms), even though many have various means to control their body temperatures.

The major consequence of plant thermoregulation is atmospheric air conditioning. Evapotranspiration humidifies the atmosphere above the vegetational canopy. With nocturnal, altitudinal and adiabatic (system-bound) atmospheric cooling, moisture in the air condenses as the dew point is reached (100% relative humidity). Clouds form and rain may result, sometimes with violent electrical discharges (thunderstorms). The more humid the air (as over forests), the lower the altitude at which the processes are initiated.

By contrast, deforestation, devegetation and desertification may inhibit or prevent local moisture cycling. Drier and hotter air rises further, to potentially form thinner, higher clouds that may disperse. Exacerbated by global warming and increasing oceanic evaporation, these processes may contribute considerably to extreme weather events far from the sites of forest thermoregulation.

 

“The late 20th century saw the creation of new ‘resource frontiers’ in every corner of the world. Made possible by cold war militarisation of the third world and the growing power of corporate transnationalism, resource frontiers grew up where entrepreneurs and armies were able to disengage nature from its previous ecologies, making the natural resources that bureaucrats and generals could offer as corporate raw material. From a distance, these new resource frontiers appeared as the ‘discovery’ of global supplies in forests, tundras, coastal seas, or mountain fastnesses. Up close, they replaced existing systems of human access and livelihood and ecological dynamics of replenishment with the cultural apparatus of capitalist expansion.”

Anna Lowenhaupt Tsing, Professor of Anthropology, University of California, Santa Cruz.

 

Human development actions to date have typically worked against these dynamics of replenishment.

It is therefore paramount that we maintain Nature’s ability to cool the environment, and to avoid the serious effects arising from deforestation, devegetation and desertification.

Water, soils and plants (and human helpers) are the key ingredients for this, and our climate recovery through the restoration of Nature. All are supremely important to humanity, and to the biosphere, for

 

• greening of the planet
• protection and restoration of ecosystem services globally
• climate stabilisation and risk management
• increasing cloud cover and albedo, and
• carbon drawdown

They can accomplish this very quickly, with sufficient support.

 

Nature Protection and Restoration are therefore the core activities we should be spending time and money on for the next decade, alongside other commitments. To be duly prioritised and valued above all else.

Funding for this should exceed that of clean energies and low carbon industry, not the other way around. All are important, but some are most important.

 

B. The Properties of Water

The water cycle is key to maintaining the planet’s temperature. Through the different phases of water, Nature harnesses the hydrology of the planet, using water as the heat absorber-in-chief.

Water also serves as the fluid matrix of Nature and all its biodiversity.  It gives fauna and flora form and structure, and provides protection from environmental stresses.

Water has many important properties that make it so universal to life and the planet:

Ability to form hydrogen bonds – Hydrogen bonds are ubiquitous in nature and play a vital role in the structure and function of fundamental biological building blocks such as proteins and nucleic acids. The oxygen atom in H2O has two lone pairs of electrons, each of which can act as a hydrogen bond acceptor. The two hydrogen atoms can each be “donated” to another acceptor atom. Due to water’s molecular structure and geometry, each molecule can participate in a maximum of four hydrogen bonds with other water molecules. The sheer number of hydrogen bonds in water accounts for many of its unique properties.

Polarity – Water molecules contain polar covalent bonds. This polarity creates a slightly positive charge on hydrogen and a slightly negative charge on oxygen, contributing to water’s properties of attraction. Polar molecules easily dissociate in water and react with H+ and OH- ions, transforming into ions such as HCO3- and CO3- (for CO2) or HS- and S- (for H2S). We can therefore transfer a vast quantity of CO2 into water (with a high pH).

Solvency – Water is often called the “universal solvent” because it is capable of dissolving a wide range of solutes. Polar molecules that include OH (alcohols, sugars), SH or NH2 groups, are highly soluble in water. Similarly for mineral salts (the six most abundant ions of seawater are sodium Na+, potassium K+, calcium Ca2+, magnesium Mg2+, sulphate SO24- and chloride Cl-). Non polar liquids (hydrocarbons, oils, fats) are much less soluble.

Hydration – The power of water’s solvent properties causes the breakdown of bonds within atoms (dissociation) and molecules (ionisation), replacing them with bonds formed with its own molecules (hydration). The hydration process is powerful and important to every living thing. Wherever there is water (air, soil, living things), it transports valuable chemicals, minerals and nutrients. Enabling the formation of solutions in which biological /metabolic reactions can occur (e.g. blood, haemolymph and liquid chlorophyll).

Surface Tension – Due to its strong electrostatic attraction, molecular symmetry and intermolecular forces, the surface tension of water is very high, making it one of the liquids with the highest surface tension. This tension effectively resists the rupture of the liquid’s surface, a property that is exploited by insects to float and glide over water, for example.

Low thermal and electrical conductivity – Water is a good absorber and store of heat, but a poor conductor – resisting the flow of heat through it. However, the thermal and electrical conductivity depends on the concentration of dissolved mineral salts (Na+, K+, Ca2+, Cl-, SO42-, and HCO3- ions). With sufficient electrolytes, water is a good medium for thermal and electrical conductivity, e.g. across biological cells in flora and fauna.

High melting point and high boiling point. Much more heat is required for phase changes in water than other substances. These thermal properties are due to the number of strong hydrogen bonds between water molecules.

High specific heat capacity – Compared to the land, air and other substances, water stores heat significantly better – due to its higher density and heat capacity. Water’s natural ability to capture heat makes it an excellent thermal regulator of its surrounding environment. As a super-plentiful liquid, water is a core component of the Earth’s weather systems, and the primary heat transfer mechanism on the planet. The high heat capacity of water also explains why coastal regions often experience a more moderate climate than inland regions. The larger bodies of water around coastal environments absorb and store a substantial amount of heat compared to lower density inland regions.

Low viscosity – While having relatively strong inter-molecular bonds, water has a sufficiently low viscosity for osmosis to take place. The balance between viscosity and osmosis allows plants to be more hardy and to preserve turgor. Without this, plants and trees would likely be much shorter.

 

C. The Water Cycle

We live on the blue planet, with a surface of roughly 71% ocean. Water is all around us.

The total volume of water on Earth is estimated at 1.386 billion km3, with 97.5% of this salt water, 2.2% freshwater and 0.3% surface freshwater.

Seawater is one of the most important water sources for the future. In chemical terms, seawater is the largest aqueous ionic solution on Earth. Dissolved salts make up 3.5% of its chemical composition, with seven ions (Na, Mg, Ca, K, Cl, S, Br) accounting for 93.5%.

The water cycle, or hydrological cycle, is the crucial element for most life on earth. It is also the main greenhouse gas (GHG), with water vapour in the atmosphere ranging from 0.01-4.2%. Water is thus very important to restoring both Nature and the Earth’s Energy balance.

In a warming world with increasing population and water demand, the balance of the water cycle is a key concern. The world’s stocks of freshwater will come under increasing pressure, requiring a structural solution to replenish stocks – Desalination.

 

A warmer planet also means more water evaporation from the oceans and greater evapotranspiration over forests (ignoring other effects). Extra water vapour brings with it increasing amounts of energy transfer – with more impactful storms and floods. But there will also be more irregularity to rainfall, and water deficits from droughts.

Please also refer to an earlier post for how the water cycle and climate change are ramping up: Beyond Normal – The Mechanisms behind our Extreme Weather.

 

The Rain Cycle as a Heat Transfer Mechanism

Transporting colossal amounts of water through the atmosphere, rain clouds also move huge amounts of energy. When water evaporates from the surface and rises as vapor into the atmosphere, it carries heat from the surface with it. When the water vapour later condenses to form cloud droplets and rain, the heat is released into the atmosphere. Such heating is a significant part of Earth’s energy budget and climate.

These reactions at the land surface are endothermic, cooling the land surface, taking in heat energy to create food for plants (photosynthesis) and water vapour (evapotranspiration).

Up in the clouds, the reactions are exothermic, condensing water vapour into rain and releasing energy.

Heat energy is thus absorbed at the surface, transported through the atmosphere, and released into the sky. And water vapour created by plants returns from the sky to the land as rainfall. The exact mechanisms behind this are manifold, and further explored below.

 

Changes in Global Rainfall Distribution

Rising ocean temperatures influence ocean-atmosphere interactions and rainfall patterns throughout the world. Changes in ocean temperatures are harbingers of storms, floods and droughts. Changes in temperature potentials are seasonal and system-driven, driving variability in winds and circulations.

For example, the effects of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific off South America, leading to a warmer and more humid eastern Pacific atmosphere. Cascading atmospheric changes can shift the position of the jet stream, which then steers stronger winter storms and atmospheric rivers to the US south west. At the same time, El Niño cools the western Pacific, typically resulting in less rain over Australia and Indonesia.

The most obvious pattern in total rainfall is seasonal change. A band of heavy rain moves north and south of the Equator seasonally. This is a general pattern, with the wet season characterized by north to south rainfall trajectories, and the dry season by east to west trajectories.

Roughly two-thirds of all rain falls along or near the equator, and countries in those latitudes often have several months of near-daily rain, followed by months of dryness as the rain band moves north and south. The Asian monsoon brings rain to China, SE Asia, and India between April and September. From October through May, South America goes through a rainy season, but even parts of the Amazon Rainforest go months each year without significant rain.

Net Water Surplus and Deficit

From a water cycle perspective, we are also interested in net water surpluses and deficits i.e. water gained as local rainfall, minus what is generated through evapotranspiration.

As the below chart indicates, net water surpluses occur in regions of tropical rain forests, temperate rain forests and boreal forests. These are also regions where there is more consistent rainfall i.e. high annual number of precipitation days.

Conversely, net water deficits occur in desert and dryland regions. Here the opposite is true – these regions have low annual numbers of precipitation days.

Changes in net water surpluses and deficits are important for understanding longer term water cycle trends. Combined with water variability modelling, they provide information on where water supplies will be most needed over time. In the future there will be will be more important global uses of water: (i) the human need for freshwater; (ii) agricultural water demand; and (iii) water for Nature Protection and Restoration.

This water will come from the water cycle, but due to future variability and climate impacts, it will need to be supplemented by strategic water supplies from desalination and water capture. Future water infrastructure will need to grow significantly, to support these competing but essential needs.

Note that both of the above charts are based on data from the late 20th century. Comparing these to the charts below, one can see the impacts of 21st century climate change more clearly. The above charts support the “wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier” trend from earlier climate change.

But more recent climate change (and land use change) is driving other changes:

 

• stronger ENSO effects – higher frequencies and intensities of El Nino and La Nina events
• increasing severity of extreme weather events, leading to increased frequency of high impact storms and floods. Lesser storms are also becoming more dangerous – intensifying more quickly, fuelled by additional water vapour.
• greater rainfall but more erratic rainfall – while the 2050 scenario shows greater average annual rainfall, much of this will come in the wet season and in the form of increasingly intense, irregular storms and flood events.

These are effects we are already seeing in 2024 – but the severity will only increase from here. One positive is that our ability to monitor and understand the climate system and the underlying physics, has improved considerably in recent years. Giving us a clearer perception of what is happening, and more ability to take actions.

 

D. Aerosols and the Water Cycle

As a recap, atmospheric aerosols are solid and liquid particles in suspension in the air. They typically remain in the troposphere for up to a week. They can be characterized by their size, composition and source. Aerosols are transported long distances during the few days they reside in the atmosphere, so regions are affected by both local and upwind aerosol sources.

Important patterns have been observed with aerosols, including:

 

• the effects of aerosol size and composition on cloud formation and condensation
• the cooling effect (negative climate forcing) of aerosols on the planet

 

Types of Aerosols

Primary and Secondary Aerosols – Aerosols injected into the atmosphere directly are known as ‘primary aerosols’ such as sea spray, mineral dust, smoke and volcanic ash. Secondary aerosols are those which were emitted in another form (mainly gases emitted via fossil fuel combustion and fires), which then become aerosol particles after chemical reactions in the atmosphere, e.g. sulphate aerosols from industrial emissions. A considerable fraction of the mass of secondary aerosols is formed through cloud processing (Ervens et al. 2011). All aerosols can undergo further chemical changes, referred to as ‘aging effects’.

Natural and Man-made Aerosols – The bulk of aerosols have natural origins, although the overlap with man-made sources and particle interactions makes a precise global aerosol attribution challenging. Sea salt and dust are two of the most abundant – mineral dust from desert sand storms, and sea salt from the spray of ocean waves. Both tend to be larger in size than their man-made counterparts – with an effect on cloud seeding.

Natural sources include volcanic eruptions (producing volcanic ash and sulphate), sea spray (sea salt and sulphate aerosols), desert storms (mineral dust), wildfires (organic carbon, OC and black carbon, BC) and ocean microalgae (dimethylsulfide, convertible into sulphate). Also biogenic emissions – those related to the natural carbon cycle, plus those resulting from the combustion, decomposition or processing of biological materials. Biological aerosol particles include bacteria, fungal spores, pollen, viruses, algae, biological crusts and lichens, bio-fragments and detritus.

Man-made aerosols appear in higher concentrations downwind of urban and industrial areas. Sources are numerous and include coal power plants and ships (OC and BC, sulphate, nitrate), biomass burning and cooking (OC and BC), road transport (sulphate, nitrate, BC, VOCs yielding OC). Deforestation, desertification, overgrazing, drought and excessive irrigation can all alter the land surface, increasing the rate at which dust aerosols enter the atmosphere.

 

Distribution of Aerosols

The distribution of aerosols is a complex subject. When viewed from space, a number of patterns emerge over both water and land. The strong winds of the “roaring forties” latitudes, for example, create a heavy band of airborne salt north of Antarctica. A thinner and more evenly dispersed layer – mainly salt and sulphates – covers most of the oceans. Over land, massive plumes of dust and pollution contribute to the mix.

 

 

 

 

The Impacts of Air Pollution and Aerosols

From the 1950s to the 1980s, the weakening of visible sunlight (‘global dimming’) was a major trend, arising from increased air pollution (due to post-war industrialization). Numerous 1970s studies showed that atmospheric aerosols could affect the propagation of sunlight through the atmosphere. Subsequent research showed an average reduction in sunlight reaching the surface of 4–5% per decade (late 1950s – 1980s), and 2–3% per decade including the 1990s.

Pollution is an important driver of biodiversity and ecosystem change throughout all biomes – in air, water, soil, marine and coastal regions. Pervasive throughout the planet, as aerosols, chemicals, eutrophicants, microplastics etc. – they reduce the ability of ecosystems to provide services such as rainfall, carbon sequestration and decontamination.

Particularly harmful for biodiversity is the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen in freshwater and marine habitats (fertiliser-land runoff). Leading to an excess of nutrients (eutrophication), growth in microbial populations and ultimately, aquatic ‘dead’ zones (hypoxia).

 

The WHO estimated that 23% of all deaths worldwide (12.6 m people in 2012) were due to environmental pollution. Since 2000, the steady decline in death rates from traditional causes (household air pollution, unsafe drinking water, inadequate sanitation) have been replaced by fatalities from new pollution sources. Deaths attributable to more modern forms of pollution are ambient air pollution, lead and chemical pollution.

Pollutants may be in the form of particulate matter, plastics (nano and microplastics), chemicals and wastes. They may combine with other pollutants, and may be omnipresent in the environment and organisms, or collect in large deposits on land, in water, coasts, at sea.

Aerosols in the lower atmosphere are a major contributor to premature deaths caused by air pollution (State of Global Air report 2024). Airborne particulate matter (PM) is not a single pollutant, but rather a complex assortment of solids and aerosols. Particles vary widely in size, shape and composition. For air quality regulatory purposes, they are classed by size:

 

• PM10 – Particulate matter with diameter 10 microns (0.01 mm) or less. Inhalable into the lungs and can induce adverse health effects. Includes dust from construction sites, industrial sources, landfills and agriculture, wildfires and brush/waste burning, wind-blown dust, pollen and bacteria.
• PM2.5 – Fine particulate matter with diameter 2.5 microns or less, mostly emissions from wood and fuels combustion. The largest airborne pollution killer worldwide, with 7.8 million deaths in 2021. Long-term exposure is linked to heart disease, lung cancer, COPD, stroke, type 2 diabetes, lower respiratory infections and adverse birth outcomes. 99% of the world’s population live in places with high PM2.5 – 34% live in areas that exceed all of the WHO air quality targets.

Ground-level ozone (O3) is another major threat, created by reactions between oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). Long-term exposure to ground-level ozone is linked to respiratory problems such as COPD and asthma. Nearly 75% of all ozone-related COPD deaths are in India and China. Ground-level ozone also contributes to crop damage and greater vulnerability to disease in some tree species.

Although high-income nations have controlled their worst forms of pollution and linked pollution control to climate change mitigation efforts, few lower-income nations have been able to make much progress. Likewise, pollution control is not yet a major issue as regards international development funding and assistance.

The sheer levels of pollution and waste around the world make them another global emergency, alongside biodiversity and climate change. This triad of problems are intricately linked – solutions in one area will benefit the others. Pollution management and prevention are gradually advancing, with new laws and regulations in Europe and the USA. In Asia a new report presents the first-ever scientific assessment of air pollution across the region.

There is still much we don’t know about the effects of pollutants – their sources, pathways and impacts. As we begin to integrate more pollutants into monitoring programmes and inventories, our understanding of risks and solutions will further improve and integrate with other efforts.

 

E. Aerosols and Climate Forcing

The large variability in aerosol properties, their size and distribution make it difficult to fully analyse their impacts on climate. They remain an active research topic as we seek better models and understandings. In simple terms, darker particles absorb more sunlight and make the atmosphere warmer, and lighter particles reflect more sunlight and cause cooling. Despite the global dimming phenomenon, the addition of man-made aerosols to the atmosphere has had a net cooling effect – a negative forcing.

Whether Earth has already reached the maximum negative forcing effects of anthropogenic aerosols is examined in Bauer et al. (2020). Developed world pollution peaked 20-30 years ago, with other major industrial nations peaking since and some perhaps close to their peak.

Aerosols are the most important climate forcing that counterbalances global warming from GHGs. As global pollution has reduced and this becomes increasingly adopted by other nations, the negative forcing of aerosols reduces – adding to global temperatures.

 

Formation of Clouds and Rainfall

Clouds are assemblages of tiny droplets (and ice crystals) formed from water vapour that has condensed onto aerosol particles. These aerosols are known as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). For clouds to form, the zone must be saturated – unable to hold all the water it contains in vapour form – forcing it to condense into a liquid or solid form.

Cloud formation therefore depends on the presence of water vapour and CCN, and the forces needed to uplift these to colder altitudes. Thermal uplifting and topography (e.g. mountain ranges) are the main forces that set the stage for cloud formation. The zone conditions, and the concentrations and sizes of the CCN, determine those of the resulting cloud elements. CCN thus determine cloud properties such as rain, graupel and hail, reflectivity and expansiveness.

Cloud Fraction maps show what fraction of an area was cloudy on average for each month. Total % Cloud Cover is a single global level measure, calculated from the cloud cover occurring at different model levels throughout the atmosphere. Assumptions are made about the degree of overlap/randomness between clouds at different heights.

The Total % Cloud Area Fraction is an indicator of reduced cloud cover, which may be attributed to the warming of the troposphere and (potentially) the changing mix of atmospheric aerosols. A longer term projection is found in Luo et al. (2024).

 

 

Precipitation in clouds can form by either warm-rain or ice crystal processes, known as warm and cold formation pathways. For the majority of rainfall over continents and mid-latitude oceans, the rain falls from cold formation (Mulmenstadt et al. 2015). If the cloud-base is cold (near 0 C) then aggregation of ice crystals can dominate the precipitation.

 

BioPrecipitation

There has been growing interest in the influence of aerosols emitted from plants – composed mostly of microorganisms but also organic volatiles and pollen. The role of plant aerosols in cloud formation – in particular bacterial aerosols – has some very important implications.

Bacterial ice nucleators (INs) are among the most effective ice nucleators known (Murray et al. 2012) and are relevant for freezing processes in the atmosphere and biosphere. Their ability to facilitate ice formation is due to the ice-nucleating proteins (INPs) anchored to their outer cell membrane, enabling crystallization of water at temperatures up to −2 C.

Below about −15 C, ice nucleation is dominated by soot and mineral dusts. Above -15 C the only materials known to nucleate ice are biological.

While mineral dust-based INs (e.g., feldspars, silicates, clay minerals) play a major role in the atmosphere owing to their ubiquity, the ice nucleation efficiency of INs derived from bacteria, fungi, lichen or plants is much higher.

Therefore, bacterial IN aerosols are increasingly thought to be a limiting factor for rainfall or snowfall in situations where:

 

• cloud-top temperatures are too warm for other aerosols to initiate ice formation, and
• cloud-base temperatures are too cold for the warm rain process.

IN aerosols are typically not included in emissions inventories, making it difficult to quantify their effects on cloud formation and local climate.

 

 

F. Water Stresses

At the environment level, water stresses may be due to excess of water or water deficit. They may occur from the supply side (drought, flood, water losses, erratic rainfall, desertification) or the demand side (increasing population, growth of water demand). The most common is water-deficit stress, or drought stress, which has a profound impact on ecological systems.

Water deficit conditions also influence irrigation availability and the presence of weeds, insects, pests and diseases. Contamination may also arise from microbes, pathogens, algae, salts and minerals, and toxic substances like pesticides.

Water stress is a worldwide problem, constraining global crop production and quality. Global climate change has made this situation more serious. Nations are increasingly under water shortage from lack of freshwater and water cycling. Unsustainable human system practices are a large part of the problem – the syndromes of global change.

Plants are frequently exposed to water stress conditions, accentuated by man-made stressors. Water stresses may be related to external factors (e.g. salt, cold, heat, flood, toxicity, acidity, alkalinity) or internal factors (e.g. pathological reactions, senescence, damage, oxidative stress).

“Water is vital for plant growth and development. Water-deficit stress, permanent or temporary, limits the growth and the distribution of natural vegetation and the performance of cultivated plants more than any other environmental factors do.” Shao et al. (2008)

 

Water deficits decrease the soil’s water potential, thereby reducing the biomass of plants – the number of leaves, individual leaf size, leaf longevity and biomass of the stem and roots system. Leaf area depends on leaf turgor, temperature, and assimilating supply for growth, which are all affected by lack of water.

The performance and biomass production potential of trees depends on the maintenance of physiological status. A decrease in total dry matter may be due to the considerable decrease in plant growth, photosynthesis and canopy structure, as indicated by leaf senescence during water stress. While leaf senescence is primarily associated with aging, it can also be induced by environmental and nutritional stresses, darkness, plant hormones and oxidants. Important for adaptation, drought stress decreases the average plant biomass, but increases its variation in the population and the concentration of biomass within a small fraction of the population.

At the individual plant or body level, water stress is manifested throughout the individual’s biology – nucleic acids, ions, lipids, proteins, carbohydrates, hormones, free radicals and so on. The stress reactions of plants differ significantly at various organizational levels, depending on stress intensity and duration, species and stage of development. Water deficit stress is characterized by decreased osmotic flow, water content, turgor, growth and cell enlargement, with reduced photosynthesis, wilting and closure of stomata. Severe water stress (or dessication) may result in arrest of photosynthesis, disturbance of metabolism, and death. Water stress resilience is thus an important focus in modern plant and biological studies.

 

G. The Challenges of Global Water Supply

 

Water availability for human needs

Water availability for human needs has over the past decades declined at an increasing rate. Strains have been put on existing freshwater resources, with water deficits caused by drought, climate shifts and groundwater withdrawals – to meet water demand from populations, agriculture and industry.

Many developing countries are suffering from a combination of physical and economic water scarcity. Currently c. 845 million people are believed to be living under severe water scarcity, with c. 2.8 billion people under serious water scarcity.

The situation of water scarcity is both physical and economic:

 

• Physical scarcity – linked to physical freshwater scarcity or limited access to clean freshwater
• Economic scarcity – linked to inadequate delivery of potable freshwater due to poor infrastructure or water management

Global water demand is seeing significant growth in all water use sectors, particularly in developing economies. Currently c. 4600 km3 /year, it is projected to increase to c.6000 km3/year by 2050. This with 40% of the global population (c. 4 billion) expected to be living in areas of severe water stress by 2050.

A structural solution and investment in water infrastructure is needed – Desalination.

 

Water for the Restoration of Nature

From the above, we can readily see that water deficits can significantly affect ecosystems large and small. Sufficient flow of water of appropriate quality is thus critical to maintaining ecosystem functions and services that build upon them. In the Great Restoration of Nature therefore, it is imperative to ensure appropriate levels of water quantity and quality – addressing the water deficit risks that have built up over the past century.

Unfortunately, water quality is declining in many regions due to insufficient safeguards in the way it is used in intensive agriculture, urban and industrial areas.

Global air pollution (see also Aerosols and the Water Cycle) is another anthropogenic stressor affecting the water cycle – both reducing overall levels of precipitation and disrupting natural cloud-aerosol interactions.

The time has come to restore Nature and restore the water cycle alongside. Desalination is the core solution for water supply and storage. And water supply for Nature Restoration is the best way to increase vegetation cover, cooling and the production of bio-aerosols for cloud formation.

 

Desalination as a Global Water Supply Solution

Water deficits are increasing with global population growth and its accompanying development syndromes. Soils are continuing to degrade. Forests are being planted and restored, but the effects of deforestation are currently still greater.

In embarking on the Great Restoration of Nature therefore, we will need to completely reverse these trends, while also protecting against future degradation and stresses from climate change. A reliable water supply from desalination will be imperative.

Desalination is seeing growing interest from national decision makers for part of their countries’ long-term water supply. Together with activity in the GCC region, new large-scale building programmes in countries such as Egypt, China and Morocco, are expected to drive the desalination sector for the next five years.

Desalinization offers great promise to supply the global population with water, particularly in areas that are subject to water deficit, drought, declining /erratic rainfall and evaporation deficit. This is increasingly the whole world.

Considering that only 2.5% of the water on Earth is freshwater, the ability to tap into the oceans and other saltwater sources provides a huge opportunity to adapt to the increasing water stress. Desalination plants have been growing rapidly and are now a key tool to make oceanic and brackish water safe to drink and available.

Desalination will become a core support mechanism in the world’s future water infrastructure. Desalination will increasingly be needed to supply clean water for drinking, as well as for irrigation, water storage, Nature Protection and Restoration.

Without a global desalination system to accompany a Great Restoration of Nature, the risk is that climate change becomes more severe and restoration efforts are increasingly hampered or ultimately in vain. This seems likely as a path, given that we are nowhere near Net Zero, and based on what we are already seeing in terms of droughts, floods, wildfires, and emerging positive feedbacks. So we had better do build a much greater desalination fleet as an insurance policy.

The current global fleet processes over 100 million m3/day of seawater i.e. 0.1 km3/day. Therefore building a global desalination fleet (and water pipeline infrastructure) to support the Great Restoration of Nature – is easily achievable over the next 20 years. Once accomplished, temperatures can be stabilised and Nature will be able to assist us in long term planetary cooling goals. Through a Great Restoration of Nature, we hopefully avoid all of the forthcoming climate tipping points, and thus mitigate the SLR path.

 

 

Desalination and Sea Level Rise

With at least half a metre of sea level rise (SLR) forecast this century, SLR will become a more significant risk and concern for most nations who have coastal populations.

Non-linearity is not yet a major factor in the SLR projections discourse. However, the ice melt is progressively increasing, as is the climate response to the Excess Energy Imbalance (EEI).

We also have to contend with future GHG increases, future EEI increases, tipping elements, and a range of positive feedback effects linked to deforestation, reduced precipitation, higher temperatures, permafrost thaw and so on.

Therefore we are very likely to see an increasing acceleration of ice melt – more likely with each year that we continue on the current excess emissions path. This may mean SLR reaches 1.5-2 m by 2100 and continues accelerating.

Desalination also provides a means to lower SLR, while creating new water supplies and strategic storage for new water infrastructure and solutions needed all over the planet.

As a useful visualisation exercise in water and scale budgeting, the scale of build to fully offset SLR of 0.7-1.0 m (or 50% of higher SLR of 1.4-2.0 m) is to build 5,500 average capacity desalination plants per year (capacity of 30,000 m3/day, rising to 95,000 m3/day by 2100).

In other words, an annual increase of 25-30% of the 2024 global desalination capacity.

Alternatively, we could build a much smaller fleet just for our own water infrastructure and Nature Restoration needs, moving to higher ground as necessary.

 

Other proposed SLR solutions include sea dams – these are protective measures, rather than ones that tackle the SLR. For example the Northern European Enclosure Dam (NEED) proposed in Groeskamp et al. (2020) – to disconnect the North and Baltic Seas from the Atlantic Ocean, and protect 15 northern European countries. Compared to other alternatives, NEED becomes the optimal solution for Northern Europe once SLR expectations exceed 2m.

 

 

Section 4 – Restoration of the Water Cycle and Soils

 

A. Water as the Fluid matrix for Biodiversity

Globally, rain is the main source of fresh water for plants and animals.

Water serves as the fluid matrix of Nature and all its biodiversity.  It gives fauna and flora form and structure, and provides protection from environmental stresses.

Water moves through ecosystems in its various forms – ice (in clouds and cold regions), liquid droplets (rain), water vapour (in aerosols, evapotranspiration and clouds), and as moisture in soils and vegetation.

Water is necessary for photosynthesis – whereby plants use CO2 from the air and hydrogen from the water absorbed through their roots. The transport of water through Nature also fosters natural cooling /energy dissipation, through evaporation and transpiration processes.

 

B. Soils

“I cannot conceive of the time when knowledge of soils will be complete. Our expectation is that our successors will build on what has been done, as we are building on the work of our predecessors.” –  R.S. Smith, Director – Illinois Soil Survey, 1928

 

Soils are fundamental to life on Earth, providing the organic matter and growth environment for vegetation, biodiversity and ecosystems.

Complex and heterogeneous systems, soils comprise organo-mineral aggregates of different sizes and organic components. These create habitats for soil biodiversity across multiple spatial scales. The diversity in habitat composition – with pores of different sizes filled with air and/or water – allows for an incredible number of taxa of different sizes and ecology to inhabit it (Andre et al, 2002).

Well nourished, hydrated soils are the foundation of healthy ecosystems and bio-productivity. From such soils we further achieve wider environmental benefits – the biotic pump, the seeding of clouds from biological aerosols, greater vegetation and albedo (reflectivity), greater rainfall, more stable rainfall patterns and so on.

Achieving sustainable management of soil resources will generate large benefits for all communities and nations. Regenerative farming practices, perennials, agroforestry – all begin with soil restoration and for a better result, above-subsistent sources of water. For many developing economies it is key to economic prosperity and food security.

Careful soil management can increase food production, and provide better climate regulation and protection of Nature and ecosystem services. Further loss of productive soils is avoidable. The fate of soils is now one of the most pressing environmental issues of our time.

 

Soil Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Today we are witnessing renewed interest in the “living” nature of soil and the microbial life that inhabits and creates it. Soil knowledge supports us to develop new understandings of Nature and the Environment – with each year we are discovering more and more incredible connections between them. The European Atlas of Soil Biodiversity (2010) describes soil as the Earth’s largest reservoir of biodiversity.

Soil organisms vary from 20 nm to 20-30 cm body width and are traditionally divided into four size classes:

 

• Microbes including virus, bacteria, archaea, fungi (20 nm to 10 μm) and Microfauna like soil protozoa and nematodes (10 μm to 0.1 mm). They mostly live in soil solutions in gravitational, capillary and hygroscopic water, and participate in decomposition of soil organic matter, as well as in the weathering of minerals in the soil. Their diversity depends on the conditions of microhabitats and on the physico-chemical properties of soil horizons.
• Mesofauna (0.1 mm to 2 mm) are soil micro-arthropods (e.g., mites, springtails, enchytraeids, apterygota, small larvae of insects). They live in soil cavities filled with air and form coprogenic microaggregates, increase the surface of active biochemical interactions in the soil, and participate in the transformation of soil organic matter.
• Macrofauna (2 mm to 20 mm) are large soil invertebrates (e.g., earthworms, woodlice, ants, termites, beetles, arachnids, myriapods, insect larvae). They include litter transformers, predators, some plant herbivores and ecosystem engineers, moving through the soil, thus perturbing the soil and increasing water permeability and soil aeration and creating new habitats for smaller organisms. Their faeces are hotspots for microbial diversity and activity.
• Megafauna (greater than 20 mm) are vertebrates (mammal, reptilian and amphibian). They create spatial heterogeneity on the soil surface and in its profile through movement.

 

 

The State of Knowledge of Soil Biodiversity (2020) describes soil biodiversity and the range of organisms in considerable detail. Each category containing a large number of subsets and types. The variety of life below-ground is simply immense, from genes and species and the communities they form, to complex ecologies within soil micro-habitats and entire landscapes. Just one gram of soil can host up to one million different organisms (Bardgett & van der Putten, 2014), most of which are still to be fully described.

Soil is not just on the land surface and below ground. Soil particles and life may also be found high up in the atmosphere, their super-light structures transported by eddies and winds up into the air. There they join the population of other aerosols and bio-aerosols in the atmosphere, an expanse where they may travel vast distances. Critical elements in the precipitation cycle, bio-aerosols may then become cloud condensation nuclei, around which ice condenses to form droplets of water. Soil may therefore be surface-resident one day, and making the weather the next.

Feedbacks between the Atmosphere and Plants

Feedbacks between the atmosphere and plants with their associated microflora, result from the exchange of energy and the exchange of mass. This includes gases, water, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs). These exchanges have an impact on humidity, temperature, cloud cover, precipitation, and wind movement – from the micro-scale to the macro-scale. The extent to which vegetation impacts these exchanges depends on the climatic and geographical context, as well as the type and health of the vegetation.

 

Soils and Ecosystems in Policy

The consideration of soils and ecosystems in policy has been generally weak, for many reasons:

 

• lack of readily-available evidence needed for policy action
• increasing scarcity of inputs and limited availability of cheap water.
• natural resource private property rights can interfere with public needs, for what are in essence important natural assets
• due to historical abundance and perhaps over-familiarity, soils have been taken for granted
• soils are routinely traded and altered, an afterthought of (non-agricultural) land development and land use changes.
• soil changes take place gradually over years and decades, so can be difficult to detect. Communities and institutions may not respond until critical thresholds are breached.
• urban encroachment onto good quality agricultural land. More regions are expected to further urbanise and by 2050, 66% of the global population are projected to be urban.
• increasing disconnection between the soil / Nature and our modern, urbanised societies.

 

Policy prioritisation comes from really understanding why one cause or plan is more important than another. Nature restoration is often approved as a worthy cause, but not appreciated well enough by policymakers to receive its due priority – at the core of objectives and budgets.

Our relative disconnection from nature is a key part of the problem – we need to go back in time and re-learn that the world is Nature-centric.

 

Human Pressures on Soils

Socio-economic Pressures – Primary global drivers of ecosystem and soil degradation are largely socio-economic – population growth, economic growth, income, poverty, welfare, agricultural productivity, food and energy security, local development needs. Such drivers are direct and indirect and also interdependent – they are syndromes of change. Even well-meaning policies in one region can lower agricultural and timber production locally, but then export the supply problems / ecosystem impacts elsewhere.

Human pressures on soil resources are reaching critical limits. Many soils have become degraded and worse. Vegetation has been lost. Forests have been cleared for urban development, livestock and crops. Soil organic carbon (SOC) has dramatically reduced. In the search for higher yields and arable productivity gains, the use of fertilisers (N,P,K), annual crops and GM crops is much greater.

With rising populations, food production will need to increase 40-50% by 2050. This puts further pressure on food systems which already emit around 20 GtCO2e/y, or 35% of global GHG emissions (Costa Jr et al 2022). Intensifying food systems and lowering their emissions by shifting food production practices will be needed, with funding and support from the international community. Regenerative farming alongside the restoration of Nature will be key.

Environmental Pressures – Interdependent with these pressures are environmental drivers – temperature, rainfall, pollution and accelerating climate change. With increasing impacts that can severely set back local economies and infrastructures, and affecting low-income countries the hardest. Many have soils with reduced fertility and low levels of agricultural productivity.

The impacts of climate change on soil and ecosystem functioning create uncertainty in any plans and projections.

 

• Changes in water availability, due to changes in precipitation patterns and higher temperatures, will influence local rates of evaporation, groundwater recharge and runoff
• Changes in soil temperature and moisture may increase the SOC decomposition rate and the risks of erosion and desertification
• Sea level rise (SLR) will increase coastal erosion and retreat. Tidal flooding by saline water will move further inland over time, extending the area of perennially or seasonally saline soils.

This calls for Nature restoration with integrated support systems – to deal with climate events and variability – chiefly water infrastructure. Without a Great Restoration of Nature – soils, ecosystems, policy and water – the situation is unsustainable. Hence the need for essential back-up services and robust Nature and Climate Finance development budgets.

 

C. The Dynamics of Degradation

“Conservation farming put first things first by attending to the needs of the soil – by seeing to it that the starting-off place … is put into sound health and kept that way. Any other approach, no matter what it may be, always has and always must lead eventually to agricultural disaster.”

H.H. Bennett,1943 – Presidential address to Association of American Geographers

 

Trees and plants are our lifeblood. Providing water, oxygen and cooling. The ancient and the modern solution. They capture water through their roots and stems, using heat energy to release water vapour. They photosynthesise.  They provide bio-aerosols to efficiently seed clouds and raindrop formation. And they capture the resulting precipitation in a Nature Positive feedback loop – lowering temperatures, improving moisture, maintaining and improving the efficiency of the ecosystem.

But under drought conditions, cycles of degradation can quickly take hold. Drought is caused by a failure of the environment to efficiently cycle the available water supply.

Under prolonged drought conditions, the ecosystem becomes unbalanced.

The landscape of native trees and plants becomes dry. Soils are dry and begin to degrade. River levels run low, lands become drier, crops fail. Once abundant soil moisture declines with higher evaporative demand. In the later stages wildfires may ensue, destroying trees and vegetation in a natural cull. The landscape converts to one of drier, more sparse vegetation.

Dry lands and dust begin to develop. Cloud formation and precipitation decline further. The dry land hardens, and is less able to take in moisture. The water cycle becomes intermittent – each stage of the water cycle has been disrupted.

Rains run off the land back to the rivers and ocean. Less and less water reaches the soil. A heat island forms over the area. The soil begins to dessicate and erode, ultimately to bare ground and dust. The increasingly bare ground repels water, evaporating raindrops that try to hit the soil. The inorganic, mineral-based dust has a lower precipitation point – inhibiting raindrop formation at normal air temperatures. The transition to unproductive wasteland completes.

 

D. Restoration of Degraded Soils and Ecosystems

“When you’re dealing with ecosystems, always assume you are wrong.”

Allan Savory

 

The regeneration of healthy ecosystems is both physical and biological. The processes for ecosystems to re-establish and flourish are linked to the condition of the landscape, soil, vegetation, climate and water supply.

For degraded lands the physical conditions must first be created for water /rain to collect, soak in and build soil moisture. Soil stabilisation may be needed. Soils may be compacted, lacking topsoil and key nutrients. The broad goals are to counteract soil erosion, loss of fertility, biodiversity loss, food insecurity and dysfunction in hydrological cycles – while improving the native vegetation, water channels, habitats and soil building.

With many degraded landscapes, the greatest challenge to improving soil functions and other ecosystem services is the lack of nutrients and organic inputs. Even if the inputs are available, the restoration of productivity may be difficult – if the soils have been degraded to the point where they cannot readily respond to fertility-improving management techniques.

Regeneration of degraded lands may be an intensive process, certainly at the outset. Managed regeneration processes (such as FMNR) can be implemented, with the participation of local communities, as low-cost, scalable, farmer-managed projects.

 

Key steps for restoration of the landscape include the development and optimisation of ecosystem services, and a sustainable cycle of ecological succession:

 

• Reduction of erosion and/or sediment, to stabilise soils and improve water quality;
• Construction of water structures – terraces, swales, bunds, trenches, check dams etc across the landscape to capture water /rain, improve water flow, improve soil conditions;
• Steps to restore local watershed conditions – improve water flow, water infiltration, soil water retention, storage of runoff, groundwater recharge; to improve growing conditions and soil webs / fluid matrix;
• Introduction of hardy /pioneer plant species and woody vegetation, that can grow in dried, harsh environments – to stabilise soils, reduce runoff, reduce peak temperature, develop more shade, more biomass, increase evapotranspiration;
• Creation of riparian and terrestrial habitats, to develop the landscape, bring back native populations, increase species richness and provide key services such as soil fertility, water purification and social improvements – with cascading benefits and a multiplier effect for restoration;
• Improvement of biodiversity – Mass planting (e.g. Fukuoka, muvuca) to build master communities, Growth of greater living biomass to improve habitats, encourage biodiversity, to reflect heat / improve albedo, to absorb and retain CO2; more necromass to improve soil conditions; native shrubs /plants and perennials, creation of pollinator climates etc. to build further ecological capacity.

 

In the case of degraded agricultural land, a multi-pronged strategy is needed to avoid further productivity losses, while restoring productivity to the soils.

 

• Reduction of productivity losses is essential to maintain the current crop production and avoid any inappropriate land use change.
• A second priority is to try to close the yield gap i.e. the difference between current crop yields and that possible through best practices.
• Yield gap is a function of soil-nutrient balance – large for infertile soils with an undersupply of nutrients, or soils that have issues of acidity, contamination or salinisation.
• Alongside this, to promote sustainable agriculture and land management practices, and to avoid any land use changes or expansion into sensitive areas such as wooded areas or wetlands.
• To minimize specific soil threats such as soil erosion and SOC loss, and to boost fertility and biodiversity, specific management practices may be adopted – (i) rotations with N-fixing crops; (ii) judicious use of organic and inorganic fertilizers; (iii) additions such as lime to address issues like acidity; (iv) adoption of conservation tillage and no-till; and (v) protective covers using cover crops and crop residues.
• Mineral fertilizers alone will not significantly increase yield, particularly in regions with large yield gaps, and their use will exacerbate the range of environmental issues.

 

Nature Conservation and Restoration

 

• Nature Protection or Conservation involves less financial outlay and delivers a greater quantity of credits, because of the high amount of carbon stocks being protected.
• Nature Restoration may involve more cost as interventions are needed, such as mass planting and hydrological engineering. Restoration projects also involve longer time horizons for the ecosystems to re-establish themselves, and become mature enough to capture soil carbon.
• Similarly with blue carbon restoration projects (wetlands – mangroves, marshes, sea grasses), the mangroves and grasses grow quickly, but the soil carbon regenerates more slowly.

 

Please also refer to recent posts showing Nature Restoration projects on the ground:

Restoring Natural Capital, Diversity and Resilience, and

Restoring Nature’s Green and Blue Lungs.

 

Conclusion

 

At the local level, changes to the soil, landscape and hydrological management are typically necessary and sufficient to regenerate a variety of landscapes – forests, woodlands, grasslands, degraded lands, drylands etc.

 

• Improving soils, biodiversity and water conditions to re-establish native landscapes, flora and fauna – the natural biological capacities of the land.
• Rapid results can be obtained, changing attitudes and inspiring local communities and building towards sustainable agricultural practices.
• Much greater than their value as agricultural or regeneration techniques, farmer-led regeneration programmes are re-greening and regeneration vectors for local communities across entire regions.

 

At the regional or global level, the restoration of Nature involves finding new resources for Nature Finance.

 

• For Conservation and Restoration activities
• For existing projects and new ambitious projects.
• For mass mobilisation, projects planning and scoping, and to build on in-country organisation and manpower.
• To build a new financial architecture – based on long-term stewardship, long-term funding, payments for ecosystem services, Environmental Funds and Environmental Taxes (see also Part 1)

 

Nature is operating with around half of the vegetation it once had. We need to maximise the available vegetated area with reforestation and planting wherever possible.

 

• Through wise ecological land management, and with speed, we can rehydrate and regenerate at least half of those lands we have already degraded.
• This will lead to more system stability and more climax communities. Improving resilience and longevity of the regrown regions.
• Hydrological cooling is a key element and feature in the restoration of soils, vegetation and ecosystems.
• Retention of water in the soils is key to regenerating the cooling fluxes of the system, with a cascading series of benefits.
• And while restoration takes place, greater water infrastructure (desalination and storage) will be needed as a back up system, to meet greater demands and to help offset the clear and present dangers of drought and extreme weather.

 

Increasing vegetation cover and nature protection and restoration on a large scale restores lost SOC over time, building the productivity of lands, and improving the net albedo of degraded lands. With sufficient re-greening across the planet – and water infrastructure solutions to balance climate risks – this will have multiple cascading benefits:

 

• improved atmospheric moisture generation from evapotranspiration;
• improved rainfall and watershed recharge, from natural cloud seeding and bioprecipitation;
• improved soil fertility and capacity for growth and photosynthesis; conditions for greater ecological succession;
• improved soil organic carbon stocks and microbial action; regeneration of the soil-carbon-water nexus;
• improved carbon drawdown (up to 20 Gt p.a.) from greater stocks of restored forests, woodlands, urban forests, urban agricultural zones, wetlands, grasslands, mangroves etc.;
• improved cooling in re-greened regions, including urban and near-urban zones;
• improved albedo in degraded lands, drylands and desertified lands;
• reduction in skyward ‘re-radiation’ and energy system ‘entropy’;
• reduced risk potential for wildfires from dryness and drought.

 

All contributing to a material offset of the temperature rises caused by the GHG concentrations and consequent Earth Energy Imbalance. Such an offset will be measurable and sufficient to encourage a much greater scale of Nature Restoration investment.

 

• Such activities need to scale up planet-wide over the next 5-10 years.
• As a business opportunity there is tremendous potential – to regenerate 4-5 billion hectares of degraded lands and return them back to a stable and biodiverse mix of forests, woodlands, grasslands, rangelands etc. Solving elements of the polycrisis in the process.
• We are out of time and at the ‘tipping point’ for action. Mass regeneration of land and hydrology is required. Challenging but doable.
• The corollary is the continued degradation and collapse of the natural systems that we depend on for everything.
• The first 10 years of Plan B may not solve all of our planetary problems, but progress will be material and fundamental to solving the long-term issues we face.

 

Link to Part 1 of this post

 

 

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