Brazil’s sugarcane production for the 2024/25 season, according to the third survey released on Thursday (28) by the National Supply Company (CONAP), is estimated at 678.67 million tons, representing a 4.8% decrease compared to the previous crop. However, the area allocated to harvest increased by 4.3%, to 8.7 million hectares, which led to an increase in the cultivated area. Average productivity also decreased, and is expected to reach 78,048 kg/ha, representing an 8.8% decrease compared to the last crop.
Among the main factors that contributed to this decline was the impact of adverse weather conditions, such as low rainfall and high temperatures, especially in the central and southern regions, which are responsible for 91% of national production. Moreover, fires in sugarcane fields, which affected several areas in the production cycle, also damaged crop yields.
The majority of Brazil’s sugarcane production comes from the southeastern region, which is expected to decline by 7.4% in the 2024/25 season, with an estimate of 434.48 million tons. The state of São Paulo, the largest producing state, will be mainly responsible for this decline, with a reduction of 35.24 million tons. Despite this, the area allocated to harvest in the southeast is expected to grow by 5.7%, to a total of 5.39 million hectares. Productivity in turn is expected to decrease by 12.3%, with an estimate of 80,650 kg/ha.
In the Midwest, sugarcane production is expected to reach 148.62 million tons, an increase of 2.5% compared to the previous crop. The area allocated for harvesting in this region will grow by 3.9% to reach 1.85 million hectares. However, average productivity in the region will suffer a slight decline of 1.3%, with a forecast of 80,451 kg/ha.
In the northeastern region, a 2.2% increase in sugarcane production is expected, with an estimated total of 57.72 million tons. Harvest is still underway and is expected to reach 55% by the end of November. In the south, production will witness a decline of 12.8% to reach 33.76 million tons, due to a decrease in productivity and cultivated area. Finally, the northern region, which represents 0.6% of national production, will witness growth of 3.8%, with an estimated 4.09 million tons, with the harvest 93% complete.
By-products – Sugar production, estimated at 44 million tonnes, is 3.7% lower than the 2023/24 crop, due to reduced availability of sugarcane for crushing. In the central, southern and northern regions, the activities of sugar energy units are about to end, which confirms the expectation of a decline in the production of sweeteners. Although there is still milling in the Northeast and in some areas of other regions, the reduced supply of raw materials directly affects the total production in this crop.
Regarding ethanol, total production, which includes both sugarcane and corn derivatives, is expected to reach 36.08 billion litres, representing a growth of 1.3% compared to the previous crop. Of this total, 28.86 billion liters of ethanol will be from sugarcane, with a 2.8% decrease due to unfavorable weather conditions. Ethanol produced from corn will rise significantly by 22.1%, with a forecast of 7.22 billion litres. Of this total, anhydrous ethanol will represent 2.87 billion litres, while hydrous ethanol will represent 4.35 billion litres.
Market – In the 2024/25 harvest, the international Brazilian sugar market remains strong, with more than 23.1 million tons exported, an increase of 23% compared to the same period of the previous harvest (April/October 2023). This is the largest volume shipped in the historical series, despite the decline in national production. Although the value of exports reached US$10.9 billion, there was a 10% decline in the average price, affected by increased sugar supplies from countries such as Thailand, China and India.
On the other hand, ethanol exports declined by 25.3%, reaching a total of 1.08 billion liters in the 2024/25 season. South Korea remains the main destination, accounting for 43% of export volume, followed by the United States and the Netherlands, which together account for 68% of the total. Expectations for the coming months indicate downward pressure on sugar prices on the international market, while the local market tends to maintain more stable values, supported by good external demand and lower domestic production. Conab
