Most electric utilities are struggling to understand how the rapidly growing number of EVs (electric vehicles) will impact their distribution systems. Adding just a few level 2 EV chargers in some neighborhoods can cause low voltage, flickering lights, reduced transformer lifetimes and blown transformers.
Estimates from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory suggest that the 2023 EV household saturation (EVs as a percent of households) will increase from 2.6 percent to 18.3 percent by 2030 – a sevenfold increase.
The huge cost of required distribution upgrades requires utilities to prioritize areas that are most likely to see the greatest increases in EVs. Unfortunately, many utilities, even those with AMI systems, have no customer visibility beyond the substation and do not currently have a reliable way to estimate EV growth for different distribution areas.
A new AI agent-based model provides EV growth forecasts at the ZIP and census tract level to support utility evaluation/planning/upgrading. The MAISY AI agent-based model can be applied to any ZIP defined area (utility service area, metro, state) for any year.
A four-page paper describing this new resource is available at: https://maisy.com/evmodel.htm
