A study conducted by the Climate Observatory Network indicates that Brazil needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 92% by 2035, to contribute fairly to the proposal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The ratio is based on emissions from 2005 and increases by limiting annual emissions to 200 million net tons, which was 2.4 billion net tons 19 years ago.
The study looked at the greenhouse gas load that the atmosphere continues to support to keep global temperature rise at 1.5 degrees Celsius and the country’s share of global emissions given the enhanced land use change in its territory.
“It’s a calculation of what the planet needs. It’s a calculation made between what would be fair, given the history of Brazil’s situation.” [metas] “In the NDCs, but also what we can do given the effort we need to maintain 1.5°C,” explains Marcio Astrini, Executive Secretary of the Climate Observatory.
This percentage was presented on Monday (26) by the entity, in the third contribution to the climate target proposal that the country will present during the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), at the Climate Observatory in BelĂ©m do Pará. In 2015, it was the first civil society initiative to contribute studies to support Brazil’s climate ambitions, and it has contributed again in 2020.
As part of the Paris Agreement, which Brazil has signed, it will be necessary to submit an NDC by February 2025. The proposal should advance in relation to the Global Stocktaking (GST), which collected information on the world’s response to the climate crisis and was presented at the UN Climate Change Conference. (COP28) in Dubai last year.
Brazil is the sixth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and in 2023 it submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) stipulating an emissions ceiling of 1.3 billion net tons in 2025, a 48.4% decrease compared to 2005. In 2030, emissions are set at 1.2 billion tons Net tons, amounting to 53.1% of total emissions in 2005.
The sum of the targets presented by all signatory countries of the Paris Agreement still does not guarantee the global ambition of keeping climate change at current levels, and would result in the planet warming by 3 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial temperature.
“We are preparing nationally determined contributions for people who lost their homes in the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, for people suffering from fires now in Brazil, and for people who are most vulnerable to heat waves. We are showing that there is a way for the country to provide a service that is compatible with us to stop the increase in these Extreme weather events.
To achieve the goal proposed by the Climate Observatory, researchers who contributed to the study point out that the country needs to achieve other ambitions such as eliminating deforestation by 2030, restoring 21 million hectares of native vegetation, combating degradation and preserving the environment. Increasing the protection of its biomes, energy transitions, practicing low-emission agriculture, as well as adequate waste management in the country.
According to Astrini, the aim is to take the study to places where the debate is developed in a technical way and in order to put pressure on public managers. He concludes by saying: “Inside and outside the government, we will take these numbers to prove that it is possible to have greater ambition.” Brazil Agency
